MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
16 Sep 2026 · 05:00
Morgan Stanley joins Goldman Sachs in 11th-hour switch to forecasting a Fed hike
Morgan Stanley late on Monday joined Wall Street rival Goldman Sachs in changing its call from the Federal Open Market Committee leaving rates unchanged to the U.S. central bank hiking interest rates. Morgan Stanley …
Morgan Stanley late on Monday joined Wall Street rival Goldman Sachs in changing its call from the Federal Open Market Committee leaving rates unchanged to the U.S. central bank hiking interest rates. Morgan Stanley late on Monday joined Wall Street rival Goldman Sachs in changing its call from the Federal Open Market Committee leaving rates unchanged to the U.S. central bank hiking interest rates…
MACRO & FED
The New Republic
16 Sep 2026 · 05:00
Don’t Knock Kevin Warsh if the Fed Doesn’t Raise Interest Rates
But core inflation is lower today than when Trump entered office, and the Fed tends to make its decisions based on core inflation. As it happens, the Fed’s preferred metric is not the CPI …
But core inflation is lower today than when Trump entered office, and the Fed tends to make its decisions based on core inflation. As it happens, the Fed’s preferred metric is not the CPI at all but the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, which shows both broad-based inflation and core inflation mostly falling lately (though the latest calculation goes only through July; August may tell a different story). The PCE percentages (3.7 percent for all items, 3.3 percent for core inflation) are higher than the CPI percentages, but if these didn’t prompt the Fed to raise interest rates during the past year (it has not, in fact, raised rates since July 2023), then it’s hard to see why the Fed should raise rates this week.
The best argument for a rate hike is that it might cool the bond markets, which pushed up 10-year Treasury bills to 5 percent on Monday. But would that really do the trick? Although the bond market is worried about inflation, it’s much more worried about the budget deficit, about which Trump can be counted on to do fuck all.
If you think I’m letting Warsh off easy, I am not. He will still get crap from Trump for not lowering interest rates, which is what that madman wants. Also, this is not the last Fed decision on interest rates prior to the midterms. The FOMC will convene again on October 27 and 28. If my analysis here proves wrong—if the next jobs report, on October 2, confirms a two-month trend of 100,000-plus jobs created, and if the next PCE report, on September 30, shows core inflation rising significantly—then yes, Warsh will probably be well advised to raise interest rates. It will be the worst possible time, so far as Republican congressional candidates are concerned. If Warsh did raise interest rates next month, Trump might try to fire Warsh and replace him with his economic yes-man, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council. But the lunacy of such a spectacle would boost Democrats in the midterms. Almost everything Trump does seems to have that effect.
CRYPTO
The Next Web
16 Sep 2026 · 05:00
The best Web3 wallets in 2026: from crypto storage to onchain trading hubs
Choosing a crypto wallet used to come down to a few basic questions: Which networks does it support? Is it secure? And how easily can users send, receive and store assets? In 2026, the …
Choosing a crypto wallet used to come down to a few basic questions: Which networks does it support? Is it secure? And how easily can users send, receive and store assets?
In 2026, the answer is becoming more complicated. Wallets are increasingly integrating swaps, perpetual futures, DeFi, yield products and cross-chain transactions directly into their interfaces. That reduces the need to move between separate applications.
Here are five Web3 wallets that illustrate that shift, and where each one stands out.
1. Jupiter Wallet: Best for Solana-native trading and DeFi
Jupiter Wallet is built around Jupiter’s wider Solana trading infrastructure. Its focus is on making onchain execution cheaper and less fragmented.
Every swap routes through Jupiter Ultra, with no additional wallet platform fee and built-in protection against sandwich attacks. Users without enough SOL for network costs can also complete eligible gasless swaps and sends, with the cost deducted through the token being transacted.
Beyond trading, the wallet brings together DeFi positions across more than 160 Solana protocols, supported earning opportunities and portfolio tracking. Jupiter Sync also connects its mobile and browser experiences without requiring users to create another seed phrase.
For active Solana users, that combination makes Jupiter less of a standalone wallet and more of a single interface for trading and managing onchain activity.
Best for: Active Solana users who prioritize execution, lower friction and integrated DeFi access.
2. KuCoin Web3 Wallet: Best for multi-chain onchain trading
KuCoin Web3 Wallet takes a broader approach. It combines self-custody with access to crypto-native and traditional finance-linked onchain markets.
The wallet brings together cross-chain swaps, perpetual trading, tokenized real-world assets, market discovery and access to more than 1,000 DApps. Recent additions have expanded that model further. They include support for Robinhood Chain and tokenized assets, alongside access to crypto and TradFi-linked perpetual markets.
A September upgrade added intent-based swaps through UniswapX and PancakeSwapX, as well as limit orders powered by 1inch. Together, these features position the wallet to move users from market discovery to execution without requiring them to give up custody of their assets.
Best for: Multi-chain users looking for broad market access and advanced trading tools while retaining self-custody.
3. Trust Wallet: Best for broad multi-chain access
Trust Wallet stands out for its breadth, supporting millions of assets across more than 100 blockchains.
Its functionality now goes well beyond asset storage. Trust Wallet offers swaps, staking and dApp access alongside native perpetual futures trading through Hyperliquid and Aster. More than 100 perpetual markets are accessible through the wallet.
For users whose activity spans several ecosystems, its combination of broad network coverage and built-in financial tools remains its main differentiator.
Best for: Users managing assets and activity across multiple blockchain ecosystems.
4. Phantom: Best for streamlined mobile and desktop trading
Phantom has expanded from its Solana roots into a broader trading experience. Alongside token trading, users can trade perpetual futures powered by Hyperliquid directly through the mobile wallet.
For more active traders, Phantom Terminal brings Solana token trading, charts, real-time market data and perps into a dedicated desktop interface, with positions synchronized across Phantom’s mobile and desktop experiences.
This gives Phantom a useful middle ground between a consumer-friendly wallet and a more advanced trading interface.
Best for: Users who want a streamlined wallet with trading across mobile and desktop.
5. MetaMask: Best for EVM users expanding into onchain markets
MetaMask remains one of the main gateways into Ethereum and the broader EVM ecosystem. But more financial activity is now moving directly into the wallet.
Users can trade perpetual futures powered by Hyperliquid through MetaMask Mobile and its browser extension. This includes contracts referencing crypto and other markets. MetaMask Mobile also integrates prediction markets powered by Polymarket for eligible users.
That adds new trading functionality without taking away MetaMask’s core strength: broad connectivity across Ethereum and EVM applications.
Best for: EVM users who want established dApp access alongside integrated trading markets.
What is changing about the Web3 wallet?
These wallets take different routes to the same broader destination. Jupiter focuses on Solana execution and DeFi, KuCoin Web3 Wallet on multi-chain trading, Phantom on accessible trading across devices, MetaMask on expanding its EVM gateway, and Trust Wallet on combining broad network coverage with more native financial tools.
Security, self-custody and network support remain fundamental. But execution, market access, DeFi integration and cross-chain functionality are becoming equally important considerations.
In 2026, choosing a Web3 wallet is becoming less about where users hold crypto and more about what they can do with it.
CRYPTO
newsBTC
16 Sep 2026 · 05:00
MEXC’s September 2026 Proof of Reserves Reaffirms Full Backing of User Assets, BTC Reserve Ratio Increases to 297%
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial …
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.
Mutsamudu, Comoros, September 15, 2026 – MEXC, a pioneer in 0-fee digital asset trading, has released its September 2026 Proof of Reserves (PoR) report, audited by Hacken, confirming that user assets remain fully backed across all major reserve assets. The BTC reserve ratio increased to 297%, up from 288% in August. MEXC continues to disclose reserve data on a monthly basis, aiming to enhance transparency and safeguard the security of user funds.
According to the audited report, dated as of the September 10, 2026 snapshot, reserve ratios for all disclosed assets are as follows:
BTC: 297%. Reserves of 12,202.13 BTC cover 4,106.57 BTC in user holdings.
USDT: 119%. Reserves of 1,818,202,910.24 USDT cover 1,526,526,878.38 USDT in user holdings.
USDC: 111%. Reserves of 299,925,929.77 USDC cover 269,894,125.25 USDC in user holdings.
ETH: 111%. Reserves of 58,917.60 ETH cover 53,243.98 ETH in user holdings.
MEXC verifies its reserves through Merkle Tree technology, allowing individual users to confirm their balances are included in the total reserve calculation without exposing other users’ data. For this month’s audit, Hacken conducted a comprehensive evaluation of MEXC’s reserves, covering Proof of Liabilities, Proof of Ownership, Reserves Calculation, and a PoR Assessment. Hacken confirmed that MEXC’s reserves exceed a 1:1 ratio across all in-scope assets, fully covering user liabilities.
“Protecting user assets and earning their trust are fundamental responsibilities, not optional commitments,” said Vugar Usi, CEO of MEXC. “In an industry where confidence has been tested time and again, transparency must be demonstrated through actions that users can independently verify. That is why we publish verifiable Proof of Reserves every month, giving users the ability to validate their asset data at any time rather than simply relying on our assurances. Our commitment is to continue raising the standard for transparency, accountability, and asset protection, and to build the kind of trust that is earned consistently over time.”
To further protect user assets, MEXC maintains the Futures Insurance Fund, which absorbs losses from liquidations triggered by extreme market conditions. The fund held a balance of approximately 798 million USDT as of press time. MEXC also operates The Guardian Fund, a dual-reserve structure combining USDT and BTC holdings that offers full compensation coverage for platform-related issues. It held a balance of $101 million as of press time and plans to expand to $500 million within two years.
To view the latest Proof of Reserves snapshot and audit report, please visit the MEXC Proof of Reserves page.
About MEXC
Founded in 2018, MEXC is a leading global multi-asset trading platform built as your 0-fee gateway to infinite opportunities. Serving users across 170+ markets, MEXC provides simple and efficient access to crypto, stocks, tokenized assets, derivatives, and a growing range of TradFi-linked opportunities through one account and one gateway.
With 0 trading fees, deep liquidity, broad asset coverage, and a high-performance trading experience, MEXC is designed for retail users who want to discover earlier, act faster, and trade with fewer barriers. As crypto and traditional finance continue to converge, MEXC is committed to making global opportunities more accessible, helping users trade freely and MEXCmize every opportunity.
MEXC Official Website| X | Telegram |How to Sign Up on MEXC
For media inquiries, please contact MEXC PR team: media@mexc.com
Risk Disclaimer:
This content does not constitute investment advice. Given the volatility of financial markets, including digital assets, tokenized assets, and traditional financial products, investors should carefully assess market conditions, underlying asset fundamentals, and potential financial risks before making any investment or trading decisions.
Source
MACRO & FED
The Times of India
16 Sep 2026 · 04:45
Global Market: Morgan Stanley turns hawkish, sees two Fed rate hikes in 2026
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Morgan Stanley has joined a growing number of major Wall Street banks in taking a more hawkish view on global interest rates, forecasting additional monetary tightening by both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank as inflationary pressures remain persistent.According to Reuters, Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its September 15-16 meeting and deliver another quarter-point increase in December. The forecast follows recent U.S. inflation data that came in stronger than expected.Morgan Stanley's revised outlook reflects concerns that the decline in inflation has not been strong or consistent enough to give policymakers confidence that price pressures are returning sustainably toward the Fed's target.The brokerage now expects two Fed rate hikes this year and sees the central bank signalling the possibility of further tightening before eventually pausing as inflationary pressures ease.Morgan Stanley's assessment was influenced by several factors, including potential second-round effects from higher energy prices, strong demand associated with artificial intelligence-related investment and the possibility that the economy's neutral interest rate is temporarily higher.The outlook also reflects concerns over the Fed's policy credibility at a time when inflation remains above target.The outlook for U.S. monetary policy has become more complicated as oil prices remain above $100 a barrel, increasing concerns about renewed inflationary pressure.Investors are also closely watching the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, who took over the central bank's leadership in May. Warsh has so far avoided providing clear guidance on the future path of interest rates.Markets are heavily pricing in a rate increase at this week's meeting, which would mark the first hike of Warsh's tenure.Morgan Stanley has also changed its outlook for the ECB, reversing its earlier view that the European central bank's tightening cycle had ended.The brokerage now expects the ECB to raise its deposit rate by another 25 basis points in December to 2.75%. Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley pointed to resilient eurozone economic growth and higher energy prices as key reasons behind the revised forecast.The brokerage has also reduced its expectations for monetary easing in Europe. It now sees only one ECB rate cut in 2027, with that reduction expected in December.The more hawkish forecasts from Morgan Stanley come at a crucial time for global financial markets, with investors preparing for policy decisions from the Fed and Bank of Japan this week.The ECB's recent return to a tightening bias has added to uncertainty over the global interest-rate outlook. Higher oil prices, persistent inflation and resilient demand are increasing the risk that central banks may need to keep borrowing costs elevated for longer than previously expected.The shift in expectations could have implications across bond, equity and currency markets as investors reassess the likelihood of prolonged monetary tightening.
CRYPTO
Cointelegraph
16 Sep 2026 · 04:45
Bitcoin short-term holders hit 30-day profit streak as bull-market odds improve: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin short-term holders approached a full month in partial profit as analysis saw improving odds of an enduring bullish BTC price reversal. Bitcoin (BTC) speculators have held onto profits for nearly a month in …
Bitcoin short-term holders approached a full month in partial profit as analysis saw improving odds of an enduring bullish BTC price reversal.
Bitcoin (BTC) speculators have held onto profits for nearly a month in what new analysis sees as a key sign of market strength.
Key points:
Bitcoin short-term holders were in partial profit for the past month, marking the longest consecutive in-profit stint of 2026.
STH profitability — a historical hallmark of bullish BTC price reversals — currently stands at $168.2 billion in profit versus $102.6 billion in loss.
The broader Bitcoin investor base has stayed in net profit since Aug. 19.
Short-term holders boost optimism over BTC price comeback
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that a subset of Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cohort has been in profit since Aug. 16.
STH investors are wallets holding an unspent transaction output (UTXO) for less than six months. They correspond to newer buyers who are more sensitive to short-term price moves and volatility, adding or reducing exposure more readily than seasoned Bitcoin holders.
Since Aug. 16, the STH investor base has been split in terms of profits on their existing exposure. STH coins held in profit total $168.2 billion as of Tuesday, while $102.6 billion are held below acquisition price.
Bitcoin STH holdings in profit and loss. Source: CryptoQuant
To CryptoQuant, however, the ratio is less important than the fact that STHs have held onto at least some profit for 30 consecutive days.
“This is the first time STH have sat in profit territory for a sustained stretch since the market top. The last time was in January, but that episode didn’t last more than a week. In May, losses held by STH remained dominant,” it wrote in an accompanying blog post.
The phenomenon of lengthening uninterrupted periods of STH profitability is one that has characterized Bitcoin market recoveries throughout BTC price cycles. It was also observed at the end of Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market. CryptoQuant thus sees it as a prerequisite for the return of a long-term BTC price uptrend this cycle.
“The bear market trend only truly reverses once profits settle in for good STH and then push them to hold their positions and ride the upside,” it added.
Bitcoin STH holdings in profit and loss through year-end 2023. Source: CryptoQuant
Newer investor cost bases cluster above $70,000
The data echoes a similar stint of aggregate profitability currently being witnessed across the Bitcoin investor base as BTC/USD retains the majority of its 25% August upside.
Related: CLARITY Act vote meets Fed rate hike: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
As Cointelegraph reported, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which tracks net profits or losses across all investors, passed its breakeven level of 1 on Aug. 19 and has narrowly held above it since. Last week, onchain analytics suite Checkonchain argued that STH profitability in particular was “starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.”
STH profitability is currently being driven by entities holding between one and three months, CryptoQuant data shows, with that cohort having a cost basis (also known as realized price) at $63,372. The cost basis of the more mature end of the STH base — wallets holding for between three and six months — now sits at $73,190.
Bitcoin realized price by wallet age. Source: CryptoQuant
CRYPTO
Crypto Briefing
16 Sep 2026 · 04:45
Mitch McConnell returns to Capitol after three-month health-related absence
Mitch McConnell, the 84-year-old Republican senator from Kentucky, has returned to the Capitol following a three-month absence due to health issues stemming from a fall and subsequent pneumonia. The Senate Minority Leader’s return comes …
Mitch McConnell, the 84-year-old Republican senator from Kentucky, has returned to the Capitol following a three-month absence due to health issues stemming from a fall and subsequent pneumonia. The Senate Minority Leader’s return comes as he continues physical therapy, indicating his capability to resume some legislative duties. This development is significant as it may influence market perceptions regarding the likelihood of McConnell stepping down before the end of his term. Market participants appear to interpret his return as a sign that he intends to continue his role in the Senate, at least for the foreseeable future.
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Key Takeaways
McConnell’s return to the Capitol appears to reduce the probability of him resigning before the end of his term.
Market pricing suggests a decrease in the likelihood of a formal resignation, with current odds at 12.5% YES.
The senator’s continued physical therapy indicates ongoing recovery, but participation in Senate activities suggests legislative capability.
What to Watch
Observers will be monitoring McConnell’s participation in Senate activities for indications of his health status. Any statements from McConnell or his office regarding his ability to fulfill his duties could further impact market perceptions. Additionally, updates from Senate GOP leadership or the Kentucky Governor regarding McConnell’s health or potential resignation will be key factors to watch. Any significant developments could shift market dynamics and affect the probability of his stepping down before January 3, 2027.
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CRYPTO
Biztoc.com
16 Sep 2026 · 04:45
Ark Invest sells $14 million in Circle, trims Coinbase as crypto stocks rally
The Cathie Wood-led investment firm routinely adds and trims its crypto stock holdings throughout the year. The Cathie Wood-led investment firm routinely adds and trims its crypto stock holdings throughout the year. This story …
The Cathie Wood-led investment firm routinely adds and trims its crypto stock holdings throughout the year. The Cathie Wood-led investment firm routinely adds and trims its crypto stock holdings throughout the year.
This story appeared on theblock.co, 2026-09-15 09:32:31.
CRYPTO
24/7 Wall St.
16 Sep 2026 · 04:30
XRP Price Prediction 3 Years: Where XRP Could Be in 2029?
XRP has already run 2.1x and then 2.7x across back-to-back three-year windows, but the next window carries a Bitcoin halving, a regulatory fork in the road, and a collateral use case that could either …
XRP has already run 2.1x and then 2.7x across back-to-back three-year windows, but the next window carries a Bitcoin halving, a regulatory fork in the road, and a collateral use case that could either reshape the token or prove irrelevant…
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XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) closed September 2023 at $0.51 and trades at $1.39 today, amounting to a 2.7x gain. XRP returned 2.1x in the window before that, climbing from $0.24 in September 2020 to $0.51. However, neither run saw XRP climb back to its $3.84 record high from January 2018.
The next three years bring a presidential election and another Bitcoin halving event, both already on the calendar. With XRP now 64% below its all-time high, where could the XRP price be in September 2029?
XRP Returned 2.1x, Then 2.7x, and the Next Window Is Set
Stanslavs / Shutterstock.com
Judge Analisa Torres ruled in July 2023 that XRP sold on secondary markets is not a security, and XRP closed September at $0.51 three months later. The SEC had sued Ripple in December 2020, and the case hung over the coin for most of that earlier window.
So XRP returned 2.1x with the case unresolved, then 2.7x after a court removed it. However, payment volume drove neither run, and no use that consumes XRP has appeared since. Eight years have passed since that January 2018 high, and XRP came within 19 cents of it in July 2025, touching $3.65 before closing the month at $3.02.
Most of what happens next is already scheduled. The CLARITY Act would split crypto oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, and by September 2029 that bill will either be law or dead. A new president will have taken office in between.
The next Bitcoin halving falls in April 2028, 17 months before the window closes. A halving cuts the new Bitcoin paid to miners in half, and a broad crypto bull cycle has followed each of the three prior halvings within twelve to eighteen months as money rotates from Bitcoin into everything else. The three outcomes below turn on which of those events arrives, and on where XRP trades when the cycle turns.
XRP Could Stay Below $2 if CLARITY Fails
danielberndt / Shutterstock.com
The bearish forecast hangs on the CLARITY Act failing and staying dead. It also needs the Fed to hold 3.75%, where rates have stood since December 2025, and the 10-year Treasury yield to hold near 4.95%. Money goes where it gets paid, and at those levels that means government bonds rather than crypto.
So the ETFs stall at 2% of circulating supply. Meanwhile Ripple keeps releasing up to a billion XRP a month from escrow and relocking most of it, which still leaves 200 to 400 million tokens on the market every month with nobody big enough to buy them.
XRP would then drift between $0.80 and $2.00, which is roughly where it has traded for most of the last five years. It already touched $1.11 on February 5, 2026, its lowest in 15 months, and $0.80 would take another 42% off today’s price. Anyone buying at $1.39 reaches 2029 with dead money rather than a loss.
XRP Could Reach $4 to $7 if the Bill Passes
hessyz / Shutterstock.com
Two things have to go right for XRP to reach $4 to $7. The CLARITY Act has to pass in 2026 or 2027, and a bull cycle has to run before 2029, most likely off the April 2028 halving and whatever rate cuts follow it.
On top of that, ETF holdings would have to double to 4% or 5% of supply, and XRPL lending would have to go live and hold enough collateral to earn fees, which would finally give the network a use beyond payments.
With all of that in place, XRP clears $3.84 and prints a new record somewhere between $4 and $7. That is a 2.9x to 5.0x move from $1.39, against the 2.7x it managed between 2023 and 2026.
However, $7 is a bigger ask than it looks. XRP would be worth about $440 billion there, five times the $87.4 billion it carries today, and circulating supply has grown from roughly 34 billion at the 2018 peak to 62.87 billion. The same price now has to cover nearly twice as many tokens.
XRP at $10 to $20 Needs Collateral Demand That Doesn’t Exist
Summit Art Creations / Shutterstock.com
This forecast needs everything above to happen first, and then banks and funds have to start using XRP as on-chain collateral, and in size. However, none of them can do that yet, because XRPL lending has not gone live, so there is no market for the demand to arrive into.
RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar-backed stablecoin, would also have to carry most of the value moving across the ledger, and Bitcoin would need a fresh cycle to clear $150,000. XRP could reach $10 to $20 on that combination. Standard Chartered’s published ladder places $19.60 at the top of that band for 2029, and the bank has held that figure while XRP fell 62% from its cycle high.
All three forecasts assume banks still trust the XRP Ledger to settle their money in 2029. Ripple targets 2028 for its XRPL amendment on quantum-resistant signatures. That cryptography would stop a large enough quantum computer from forging transactions. In September 2026 the estimated cost of cracking Bitcoin’s encryption fell by half, which pulls the threat forward for every chain, XRP included.
If Ethereum or Bitcoin ports quantum resistance to mainnet first, XRP’s pitch as the settlement layer for regulated finance weakens. But if Ripple delivers first, every outcome above gets stronger.
$3.84 Is the Level That Separates the Three Outcomes
The $4 to $7 forecast is the one to plan around. It needs the CLARITY Act on the books, one bull cycle inside the window, and XRP back above $3.84 before any of it counts.
A floor vote on the CLARITY Act is the fastest signal on whether the bill makes it. If the bill passes in 2027, the ladder above $3.84 opens. If it stalls, XRP probably spends the next three years where it spent the last five, and $4 becomes a 2032 question.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
CRYPTO
Crypto Briefing
16 Sep 2026 · 04:15
Warsh set for showdown with Trump as Fed faces pressure to raise rates
Fed Decisions from June to September Kevin M. Warsh, the current Chair of the Federal Reserve, faces increasing pressure to raise interest rates amid ongoing economic scrutiny. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is …
Fed Decisions from June to September
Kevin M. Warsh, the current Chair of the Federal Reserve, faces increasing pressure to raise interest rates amid ongoing economic scrutiny. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on September 15-16, and speculation is rife regarding a possible rate hike. The New York Times reports that Warsh and the Fed are likely to raise rates, defying expectations from some economists who anticipated the current target range of 3.50% to 3.75% would remain unchanged. This potential shift comes despite the backdrop of inflation running above the Fed’s target, as Warsh has highlighted in recent statements focused on price stability.
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Key Takeaways
Market pricing suggests a significant shift in expectations towards a rate hike, with recent reports indicating Warsh’s likely move.
The probability of the Fed maintaining its current target range has decreased sharply, reflecting market sentiment that a rate increase appears imminent.
Market activity suggests that participants are adjusting their expectations in light of Warsh’s emphasis on controlling inflation.
What to Watch
The FOMC’s upcoming meeting on September 15-16 will be crucial in determining the Fed’s rate decision. Observers should monitor any statements from Warsh that may indicate the Fed’s policy direction. Additionally, the market’s reaction to the Fed’s decision will provide further evidence of sentiment shifts, especially if a rate hike occurs against previous expectations. The interplay between Warsh’s policy stance and external pressures, including political influences, will also be key factors to observe.
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