CRYPTO
Crypto Briefing
14 Sep 2026 · 19:00
Circle and Tether emerge as key beneficiaries of the neobank boom
Stablecoin issuers are quietly winning the neobank race while the neobanks themselves struggle to turn a profit The fastest-growing digital banks in emerging markets have a common thread running through their payment rails: stablecoins. …
Stablecoin issuers are quietly winning the neobank race while the neobanks themselves struggle to turn a profit
The fastest-growing digital banks in emerging markets have a common thread running through their payment rails: stablecoins. And the two companies minting those stablecoins, Circle and Tether, are reaping the rewards of a fintech expansion they didn’t have to build themselves.
While neobanks across Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia race to sign up customers with promises of cheap transfers and dollar-denominated accounts, roughly 76% of them remain unprofitable.
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The stablecoin layer powering digital banking
Neobanks targeting volatile economies have a compelling pitch: skip the legacy banking system, avoid forex fees that can eat up to 5% of a transaction, and settle payments instantly using blockchain rails. The stablecoins making that possible are overwhelmingly USDC and USDT.
Platforms like Rizon, Altitude, Fuse, Cleva, Plasma One, and Kast have all built their services on top of stablecoin infrastructure. Even Nubank, one of the world’s largest digital banks, has integrated stablecoin functionality. Specialized services like Lipaworld are using stablecoins to facilitate cross-border payments in markets like Kenya where traditional transfer costs remain punishingly high.
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Circle’s USDC market cap surged to approximately $75 billion in 2025, representing a 73% year-on-year increase. Tether’s USDT also grew, though at a slower clip, marking the second consecutive year where USDC outpaced its larger rival in percentage terms. Together, the two dominate a fiat-backed stablecoin market that expanded roughly 46% year-on-year in 2025.
Neobanks have a revenue problem
The neobanks themselves are in a trickier position. Most rely on interchange fees, the small cut a card issuer takes when a customer swipes, which typically land between 1% and 2% per transaction. That sounds fine until you factor in customer acquisition costs, compliance overhead, and the regulatory friction of operating across multiple jurisdictions.
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With three out of four neobanks running at a loss, the sector resembles the early ride-sharing era: lots of growth, lots of funding, not a lot of profit.
Some platforms are pivoting toward revenue streams with better unit economics. Net interest income, subscription tiers, and lending products are all on the table. But none of these approaches have fully resolved the fundamental challenge of making a digital bank profitable in markets where the average customer generates modest revenue.
Regulatory moats are forming
Both stablecoin issuers have been making regulatory moves that could lock in their advantages for years. Circle received approval for an OCC national trust bank charter, a first for any major stablecoin issuer. Tether, historically more cautious about US regulatory engagement, has taken its own steps by planning to launch a US-regulated stablecoin called USAT through Anchorage Digital Bank.
The broader stablecoin market’s 46% growth rate in 2025 suggests this isn’t a temporary trend.
What this means for the market
The divergence between USDC and USDT growth rates is also worth watching. USDC’s faster expansion, driven partly by Circle’s regulatory positioning and fintech partnerships, could eventually challenge USDT’s overall market cap lead.
The neobank sector’s profitability struggles also introduce a layer of risk to this story. If a wave of neobank failures hits emerging markets, it could temporarily reduce stablecoin demand in those corridors. But given the structural advantages stablecoins offer over traditional forex channels, including speed, cost savings of up to 5%, and 24/7 settlement, the underlying demand driver seems durable even if individual platforms don’t survive.
CRYPTO
Crypto Briefing
14 Sep 2026 · 19:00
Samsung backs AI chip rival in $250M funding round as GPU alternatives rise
The tech giant is betting on South Korean startup Rebellions as the semiconductor industry races to build credible alternatives to Nvidia's AI dominance. Samsung is putting serious money behind the idea that Nvidia doesn’t …
The tech giant is betting on South Korean startup Rebellions as the semiconductor industry races to build credible alternatives to Nvidia's AI dominance.
Samsung is putting serious money behind the idea that Nvidia doesn’t have to own the entire AI chip market. The Korean electronics giant participated in a $250 million Series C funding round for Rebellions, a South Korean AI chip startup now valued at $1.4 billion.
Samsung’s foundry division is already manufacturing Rebellions’ chips on its 4nm and 5nm processes, with plans to move to 2nm technology down the road.
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Who else is at the table
Samsung Ventures wasn’t alone in this round. Arm, Pegatron VC, and Korea Development Bank also participated in the funding.
Korea Development Bank’s involvement adds a layer of government-backed strategic interest. South Korea has been vocal about its ambitions to remain a semiconductor superpower, and funneling state-linked capital into domestic AI chip startups fits that playbook perfectly.
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What Rebellions actually builds
Rebellions focuses on specialized accelerators designed for AI inference workloads, the computational tasks that happen after a model has been trained, when it’s actually generating answers, images, or predictions in real time.
Rebellions’ flagship design, called Rebel-Quad, uses a chiplet-based architecture. Rather than building one massive monolithic chip, it connects smaller chip components together. This approach prioritizes energy efficiency and the ability to scale for large AI deployments.
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The company positions its accelerators as direct competitors to GPU offerings from both Nvidia and AMD, but with a narrower, more efficient focus on inference.
Why Samsung cares this much
Samsung’s chip manufacturing business has been losing ground to TSMC, which fabricates Nvidia’s GPUs and Apple’s processors. Every new customer Samsung can lock into its advanced process nodes helps justify the billions Samsung has poured into its fabrication plants.
Manufacturing Rebellions’ chips on 4nm today, with a roadmap to 2nm, gives Samsung a showcase customer for its most advanced technology.
Samsung also has a massive memory chip business that benefits from AI hardware diversification. More players in the AI accelerator market means more potential customers for Samsung’s HBM (high-bandwidth memory) products.
The $1.4 billion valuation for Rebellions might look modest next to Nvidia’s multi-trillion-dollar market cap. Between Rebellions, Groq, Cerebras, and a growing list of custom silicon efforts from cloud providers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, the message from the industry is clear: nobody wants a single-supplier dependency for the most important technology trend in a generation.
Samsung’s dual role as both investor and manufacturer gives it an unusually powerful position in this dynamic. It profits whether Rebellions succeeds as a chip company or simply drives enough volume through Samsung’s foundries to improve their utilization rates.
CRYPTO
Crypto Briefing
14 Sep 2026 · 18:45
US-Iran conflict cuts global LNG supply 20%, Asia prices hit 3-year high
Crude oil all time high predictions The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has resulted in a significant supply disruption of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with a reported 20% reduction impacting global …
Crude oil all time high predictions
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has resulted in a significant supply disruption of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with a reported 20% reduction impacting global flows. This reduction is particularly affecting Asia’s developing markets, leading to increased costs and prompting a reevaluation of LNG’s long-term viability in the region. The disruption has primarily been driven by tensions in the Middle East, affecting key supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, LNG prices in Asia have surged to their highest in over three years, with the JKM benchmark for Northeast Asia deliveries reflecting this sharp increase.
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Markets appear to interpret the supply shock as a factor that could tighten regional gas balances, maintaining elevated import costs. This scenario has reverberated beyond the LNG market, influencing crude oil pricing forecasts. Current market data suggests an increased likelihood of crude oil prices reaching new highs by the end of the year, as energy supply constraints and geopolitical tensions drive market dynamics.
Key Takeaways
The US-Iran conflict appears to have reduced global LNG supply by 20%, significantly impacting Asia’s markets.
Pricing in the crude oil market suggests increased expectations for a potential all-time high by year-end.
Asia’s LNG price surge is consistent with ongoing Middle East supply disruptions affecting global energy markets.
What to Watch
Energy markets will be closely monitoring developments in the US-Iran conflict and any potential resolutions, as these could impact supply chains and pricing. The focus will likely remain on the Strait of Hormuz and other key transit points for further disruptions. Additionally, statements from major energy figures such as OPEC’s Secretary General and the IEA’s Executive Director could provide further insights into future supply dynamics and pricing expectations. As the December 31 deadline approaches, watch for shifts in geopolitical stability and energy policy that could influence market pricing and expectations for crude oil reaching new highs.
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CRYPTO
Crypto Briefing
14 Sep 2026 · 18:30
North Korea may send troops to support Russia in Ukraine conflict: BBC
Russia cities entry by December 31, 2026 A new group of North Korean soldiers may join Russia’s ongoing military efforts in Ukraine, according to a report by BBC World. This potential development is part …
Russia cities entry by December 31, 2026
A new group of North Korean soldiers may join Russia’s ongoing military efforts in Ukraine, according to a report by BBC World. This potential development is part of the broader involvement of North Korea in supporting Russia amidst the full-scale conflict against Ukraine. The conflict has seen no resolution, with both Moscow and Pyongyang openly acknowledging North Korean support. The addition of North Korean troops could escalate the international dimension of the conflict, extending beyond mere weapons supply to active troop deployment. This move may have significant implications for the dynamics on the ground in Ukraine and could impact market perceptions of military developments in the region.
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Key Takeaways
The potential deployment of North Korean soldiers to Ukraine appears to support an increase in Russian military capacity, suggesting a stronger position for Russia in the conflict.
Market pricing suggests a possible increase in the likelihood of Russia achieving territorial gains, particularly in Sloviansk, as reflected by a rise in relevant market odds.
The involvement of North Korean troops could indicate a deeper commitment by Pyongyang to support Russia, potentially influencing future military and geopolitical strategies.
What to Watch
Observers will be closely monitoring any official announcements from North Korea or Russia confirming the deployment of additional troops. An increase in Russian military activity in Ukraine, particularly in strategic locations such as Sloviansk, could further influence market perceptions. Conversely, any significant advances by Ukrainian forces or international diplomatic efforts may shift expectations about the conflict’s trajectory. The situation remains fluid, and developments in this area could have substantial effects on market expectations regarding the outcome of the conflict.
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CRYPTO
BeInCrypto
14 Sep 2026 · 18:00
Bitcoin Faces 87% Fed Hike Odds Wednesday: Will Treasury Save the Rally?
Traders price an 87% chance of a Fed rate hike Wednesday as Caitlin Long argues Treasury now holds the real power. Bitcoin trades near $77,250 three days before the Federal Reserve decides on interest …
Traders price an 87% chance of a Fed rate hike Wednesday as Caitlin Long argues Treasury now holds the real power. Bitcoin trades near $77,250 three days before the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates, with futures markets pricing an 86.5% chance of a quarter-point hike on Wednesday.
Custodia Bank CEO Cait…
MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
14 Sep 2026 · 17:45
Trump says US interest rates should be lowest in the world
President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US should have the world’s lowest interest rates, piling pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh days before the bank is expected to raise them amid …
President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US should have the world’s lowest interest rates, piling pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh days before the bank is expected to raise them amid an increasingly hawkish global outlook.
Trump’s call come… President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US should have the worlds lowest interest rates, piling pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh days before the bank is expected to raise them ami…
CRYPTO
Crypto Briefing
14 Sep 2026 · 17:45
Anthropic reports first profitable quarter as revenue tops $11.5B
The Claude maker has lapped OpenAI on quarterly revenue and is eyeing a potential IPO as early as October 2026 Anthropic just did something that most AI companies have been promising for years: it …
The Claude maker has lapped OpenAI on quarterly revenue and is eyeing a potential IPO as early as October 2026
Anthropic just did something that most AI companies have been promising for years: it made money. For the second quarter running.
The company behind the Claude family of models posted preliminary Q2 2026 revenue exceeding $11.5B, blowing past its own internal projection of $10.9B. That result also marks its first quarter of positive adjusted operating income, with operating profit coming in at $559M.
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To appreciate how fast this company is moving, consider where it started. Anthropic generated $787M in revenue during Q2 2025. One year later, that number is nearly fifteen times larger.
The numbers that matter
Revenue growth of this magnitude is unusual even by the frothy standards of the current AI cycle. Anthropic went from $4.73B in Q1 2026 to more than $11.5B in Q2 2026, a sequential jump that most software companies would consider a multi-year achievement.
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The headline profit figure carries an important qualifier: this is adjusted operating income, not GAAP net income. Adjusted metrics typically strip out stock-based compensation and other non-cash charges, so the company is not necessarily printing cash in the way a traditional profitable business would. But hitting positive operating territory on any basis matters for the narrative heading into a potential public offering.
Perhaps the most underappreciated number in the report is the compute cost improvement. Anthropic reduced the cost of running its models from 71 cents to 56 cents per dollar of revenue. That 15-cent improvement sounds modest until you remember that at $11.5B in revenue, every cent of efficiency is worth tens of millions of dollars.
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Anthropic has locked in multi-year compute agreements with Amazon and Google, giving it cost predictability that smaller rivals cannot easily replicate.
Beating OpenAI on revenue
There is a competitive subplot here that the AI industry will not ignore. OpenAI reported $6.7B in quarterly revenue for the same period. Anthropic has now posted nearly double its rival’s top line in a single quarter.
Anthropic has leaned heavily into enterprise contracts, particularly in coding assistance and agentic workflows, where customers are willing to sign multi-year agreements and consume tokens at high volumes. OpenAI has a larger consumer footprint with ChatGPT, which generates revenue but at thinner margins than dedicated enterprise deployments.
What comes next
The profitable quarters arrive at a convenient moment. Anthropic has been discussed as a potential IPO candidate as early as October 2026, and private market conversations have floated valuations reaching into the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Amazon holds an equity stake in Anthropic, and the company’s strong Q2 performance generated an unrealized gain that showed up positively in Amazon’s own quarterly earnings.
Given that Anthropic surpassed its own internal targets ahead of schedule, even the people inside the company did not fully anticipate how quickly demand would materialize.
CRYPTO
Crypto Briefing
14 Sep 2026 · 17:30
Trump advocates for lowest interest rates ahead of Fed meeting
The president called for the US to have the world's cheapest borrowing costs just days before the Fed decides on rates President Trump wants the US to have the lowest interest rates on the …
The president called for the US to have the world's cheapest borrowing costs just days before the Fed decides on rates
President Trump wants the US to have the lowest interest rates on the planet. He said so from an Irish golf course, because of course he did.
Speaking at the Irish Open in Doonbeg on September 13, Trump declared that the US “should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world,” delivering the remarks just two days before the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting kicks off on September 15.
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The gap between what Trump wants and where rates actually sit
The federal funds rate currently sits in a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Trump has advocated for rates as low as 1% or below, which would represent a dramatic reduction of more than 250 basis points from current levels.
Trump’s argument is straightforward: high interest rates put the US at a competitive disadvantage relative to other nations, increase the cost of servicing a national debt that now exceeds $39 trillion, and act as a drag on economic growth.
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Inflationary pressures remain elevated. Oil prices have climbed. Job data has come in strong. All of which has led market participants to expect that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whom Trump himself appointed earlier in 2026, might actually raise rates rather than cut them.
Social media threats and trade leverage
Trump didn’t limit his rate advocacy to golf course remarks. He also took to social media with a post that read: “LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT.”
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White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett offered a slightly more measured take, suggesting that Trump might accept a potential rate hike if economic conditions warranted it.
What’s at stake for markets
The September 15-16 Fed meeting now carries an unusual amount of political charge on top of its economic significance. Investors are weighing two very different scenarios.
If the Fed holds rates steady or cuts, equity markets could get a boost. Lower borrowing costs tend to support corporate investment, consumer spending, and risk appetite broadly. Growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors like technology and real estate would likely benefit most.
If Warsh moves forward with a hike, higher rates increase borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages to corporate credit lines. Stock valuations, particularly for companies whose prices are built on future earnings expectations, tend to compress when discount rates rise.
The current federal funds range of 3.50% to 3.75% already reflects a series of cuts made under previous Fed leadership. Those reductions were designed to support the economy through earlier periods of uncertainty. Reversing course now would send a clear signal that the Fed sees inflation as a more pressing threat than slowing growth.
MACRO & FED
Advfn.com
14 Sep 2026 · 17:15
UBS Expects Two Fed Rate Hikes by End of 2026 After Warsh Speech and Jobs Data
UBS analysts expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice before the end of 2026, citing comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and recent U.S. employment data. Analysts including Jonathan Pingle and Abigail …
UBS analysts expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice before the end of 2026, citing comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and recent U.S. employment data.
Analysts including Jonathan Pingle and Abigail Watt said Warsh’s remarks at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole event supported the case for higher interest rates.
Warsh said policymakers “must be confident” that underlying inflation is moving towards the Fed’s 2% target “clearly and at sufficient speed,” adding that, if this does not occur, “we have work to do.” He also identified interest rates as the primary instrument of monetary policy.
“[Warsh] threw down the gauntlet. Now, with his credibility on the line, we expect he has little choice but to put his monetary policy where his mouth is,” the UBS analysts said.
UBS Forecasts September and December Rate Increases
UBS currently expects two quarter-point interest-rate increases during the remainder of 2026, with one at the Fed’s September meeting and another in December.
However, the analysts described the forecast as “not high conviction” and said it remains dependent on incoming economic data.
They said a weaker-than-expected August consumer price index reading this week, for example, could “undo this assessment.”
Markets are pricing in an approximately 60% probability of a 25-basis-point increase this month. The shift in expectations follows data showing that the U.S. economy added substantially more jobs than anticipated in August.
Higher borrowing costs can weigh on employment growth, while continued labour-market resilience can support the case for higher rates.
UBS Calls September Fed Decision a Close Call
Despite forecasting an increase at the September meeting, UBS said the outcome remains uncertain.
“We see the September decision as a close call. That is partly because we expect […] Warsh to weigh the principles he laid out alongside market pricing, his assessment of how rates have moved in between meetings, and the views and argument of his colleagues,” the UBS analysts said.
UBS therefore expects Warsh’s previously stated policy principles, market expectations, changes in interest rates between meetings and the views of other Fed policymakers to factor into the September decision.
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CRYPTO
Crypto Briefing
14 Sep 2026 · 17:15
House Ways and Means Committee Republicans consider dropping crypto tax provisions
Key provisions on mining and staking tax treatment may be cut from the digital asset package to secure bipartisan support ahead of midterm elections House Republicans on the Ways and Means Committee are weighing …
Key provisions on mining and staking tax treatment may be cut from the digital asset package to secure bipartisan support ahead of midterm elections
House Republicans on the Ways and Means Committee are weighing whether to strip out provisions that would change how crypto mining and staking rewards are taxed, a move that could reshape one of the most consequential pieces of digital asset legislation currently moving through Congress.
The provisions in question come from H.R. 9175, the Tax Clarity for Mining and Staking Act, introduced on June 8, 2026, by Rep. Mike Carey (R-OH). The bill’s core idea is straightforward: let miners and stakers defer paying taxes on newly created crypto rewards until they actually sell the assets, rather than treating those rewards as taxable ordinary income the moment they hit a wallet.
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Why the tax treatment matters
Under the IRS’s current framework, if you validate transactions on a blockchain and receive tokens as a reward, you owe income tax on the fair market value of those tokens at the time you receive them. Sell or don’t sell, the tax bill arrives regardless.
H.R. 9175 would fix this by pushing the taxable event to the point of sale, aligning the treatment more closely with how other property transactions work in the tax code.
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The bipartisan math
The reason Republicans are considering dropping these provisions isn’t philosophical. It’s political arithmetic.
Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) is reportedly trying to advance the less contentious elements of the broader tax package ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. The key figure in the calculation is Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV), described as a significant Democratic supporter of crypto regulation. Securing his backing could give the package enough bipartisan credibility to survive the legislative gauntlet, but that support apparently comes at a cost: the mining and staking provisions.
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Democrats on the committee raised concerns during a hearing on June 9, 2026, that offering a tax deferral privilege specifically for digital asset rewards could create an uneven playing field compared to traditional investments. That hearing featured testimony from Fidelity, Coinbase, and NYU Law’s Tax Law Center, all weighing in on how the tax structure shapes the crypto investment landscape.
Industry pushback is already underway
On June 21, 2026, a coalition of crypto industry groups sent a letter urging the committee to pass the bill without modifications. Their argument: stripping out the mining and staking provisions would actually hurt the chances of bipartisan support, not help them, because the provisions address a real policy problem that members on both sides of the aisle have acknowledged.
The markup is scheduled for September 16, 2026, which means the committee has roughly three months to sort out the internal dynamics.
For miners and stakers specifically, the stakes are concrete. Operations with significant capital expenditures on hardware and energy already run on thin margins. Adding a tax obligation on rewards before any liquidity event compounds the financial pressure, particularly during bear markets when the tokens received as rewards may be worth substantially less by the time they’re sold than when they were earned.
Fidelity’s presence at the June 9 hearing wasn’t accidental. Large financial institutions have been expanding their digital asset offerings, and the regulatory and tax framework surrounding those assets directly influences how aggressively they can move.
Whether Chair Smith can thread the needle—keeping enough provisions to satisfy the industry while trimming enough to bring Democrats along—will likely determine whether this Congress produces meaningful crypto tax legislation at all.