Actualités financières en direct

Trade, Peace and WarPaul Krugman | Substack Trump Pushes Fed to Lower Rates Despite Pressure to Raise ThemBloomberg.com Trump keeps heralding an economic boom, but even a solid jobs report is causing problems for …

Trade, Peace and WarPaul Krugman | Substack Trump Pushes Fed to Lower Rates Despite Pressure to Raise ThemBloomberg.com Trump keeps heralding an economic boom, but even a solid jobs report is causing problems for himpbs.org Asked about Fed decision, Trump say… You can do this in a number of ways. IBM chose to do all of them. Why do you find that funny? -- D. Taylor, Computer Science 350

Trump Pushes Fed to Lower Rates Despite Pressure to Raise ThemBloomberg.com Trade, Peace and WarPaul Krugman | Substack Trump keeps heralding an economic boom, but even a solid jobs report is causing problems for …

Trump Pushes Fed to Lower Rates Despite Pressure to Raise ThemBloomberg.com Trade, Peace and WarPaul Krugman | Substack Trump keeps heralding an economic boom, but even a solid jobs report is causing problems for himPBS Asked about Fed decision, Trump says US… If I set here and stare at nothing long enough, people might think I'm an engineer working on something. -- S.R. McElroy

Xi jinping US visit timing Beijing has issued a warning to Washington that recent U.S. weapons deals with Taiwan could jeopardize a planned summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump. …

Xi jinping US visit timing Beijing has issued a warning to Washington that recent U.S. weapons deals with Taiwan could jeopardize a planned summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump. This latest development adds to the long-standing tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, a self-governed island that China considers a breakaway province. The arms sales have historically been a sensitive issue for China, leading to heightened diplomatic pressure whenever they occur. The possibility of canceling high-level talks underscores the potential for further strain in U.S.-China relations. The market reflects this uncertainty, with a notable decrease in confidence that Xi Jinping will visit the U.S. before 2027. Advertisement Key Takeaways Market pricing suggests increased skepticism about Xi Jinping visiting the U.S. before 2027 following Beijing’s warning. The probability of Xi’s visit before September 24 has notably dropped, reflecting heightened diplomatic tensions. Market participants appear to interpret the arms sales as a significant obstacle to improving U.S.-China relations. What to Watch The focus will be on any official statements from Beijing or Washington that could either escalate or de-escalate the current tensions. Observers will also look for any changes in diplomatic engagements or further announcements regarding arms sales to Taiwan. Monitoring the responses from key figures like Xi Jinping and Donald Trump could provide further insights into whether the summit will proceed or be postponed. Any confirmation or denial of Xi’s travel plans will be crucial in shaping market expectations. Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

The so-called ‘500-day rule’ says buying BTC roughly 500 days before a bitcoin halving and selling it about 500 days after would have produced profits in prior cycles. A historically profitable bitcoin trading rule, …

The so-called ‘500-day rule’ says buying BTC roughly 500 days before a bitcoin halving and selling it about 500 days after would have produced profits in prior cycles. A historically profitable bitcoin trading rule, built around the cryptocurrency’s four-year halving cycle, is pointing toward another potential buying opportunity. But this time around, the pattern might not work as well as before, as spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors influence the market more than ever before. The “500-Day Rule,” popularized by Pantera Capital in 2023, suggested that investors would historically have profited by buying bitcoin roughly 500 days before the halving and selling about 500 days afterward. The trading strategy, which has historically generated returns of up to roughly 34 times an investor’s original stake, revolves around bitcoin’s previous boom-and-bust cycles, in which reductions in newly mined supply were followed by sharp price gains. “Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterward,” Pantera Capital said in a 2023 report. “The post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days from the halving to the peak of that next bull cycle,” the article added. A bitcoin halving is programmed to occur every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, cutting the number of new bitcoin awarded to miners per block by 50%. CoinDesk approached Pantera Capital for comments on whether this pattern is still reliable given the new crypto market conditions, but their team had not responded by publication time. According to the theory, the next accumulation window is likely approaching, according to pro-bitcoin social media accounts. Based on the previous halving on April 20, 2024, the next buy signal or accumulation window is set to open in late November, and the sell signal will come in mid-August 2029. The chart shows how the Bitcoin 500-Day Rule worked in the past. Experts believe new market conditions may invalidate the rule. (Gemini AI/CoinDesk Data) However, some market observers say the mechanism behind that pattern may be weakening this time around. This will be the first halving cycle in which U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have been available, and their daily flows can exceed the value of new bitcoin tokens produced by miners, making institutional demand and broader macro conditions more important than the halving itself. “Markets have a habit of punishing consensus,” warned Mati Greenspan, a former senior eToro market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics. “The timing may rhyme with previous cycles, but this is the first cycle where Wall Street is a dominant participant.” Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, said bitcoin’s changing investor base has made the rule less relevant this time around compared with earlier cycles. “I don’t think the 500-day rule will be as relevant in the current cycle. BTC is now primarily institutionally driven. ETF inflows have dwarfed the halving supply shock.” Following the April 2024 halving, bitcoin miners produced about 450 BTC per day, worth about $35 million to $40 million, Fernandes said. By comparison, the daily spot bitcoin ETF flows in 2024 and 2025 ranged from about $100 million to $1 billion, he added. The contrast suggests ETF flows now outweigh the new supply created by miners, blunting the halving’s direct impact. Additionally, those flows can also reverse, adding selling pressure on the price of bitcoin, as seen recently, making these ETF moves a dominant force in price moves. Aryan Sheikhalian, investor and head of research at CMT Digital, agreed with Greenspan and Fernandes, saying the mechanism and fundamentals that have historically driven the bitcoin halving cycle are fading. “New supply from miners is de minimis next to spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate U.S. Treasury flows, and those flows set both the top and this year’s unwind,” Sheikhalian said. There are, however, still some believers in this four-year cycle of halving, and its historical impact and miner economics remain fundamental mechanics of the bitcoin market. “The bitcoin four-year cycle remains intact after 15 years as a structural anchor for market dynamics, driven primarily by miner economics that establish bitcoin’s price floor and trigger systemic capitulation,” said Vineet Budki, managing partner at Sigma Capital. In simple terms, these halving events make mining less profitable, especially when bitcoin prices fall or energy costs are higher, forcing some miners to stop operating. This mechanism helps clear excess leverage and lower supply into the market, helping to start another period of accumulation. While the debate over the cycle’s validity continues, and whether the pattern holds this time around won’t be known until 2029, the question is whether the “500-day” rule remains precise enough to be used as a trading signal. “The biggest risk isn’t that the halving pattern breaks, it’s that everyone expects it to repeat exactly,” Greenspan said.

KRX launches an evening session in a bid to compete with US exchanges and eventually run a 24-hour market by 2027. South Korea’s main stock exchange is doing something its Asian peers have largely …

KRX launches an evening session in a bid to compete with US exchanges and eventually run a 24-hour market by 2027. South Korea’s main stock exchange is doing something its Asian peers have largely avoided: staying open after dinner. The Korea Exchange, known as KRX, announced on September 9 that it will launch a continuous after-market trading session starting September 14, running from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. Korea Standard Time. That four-hour window replaces a clunkier system that ran auction-style trades in 10-minute intervals between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. The new session uses real-time order matching, which means prices move continuously rather than in discrete jumps every few minutes. Gloria See exactly what Buffett, Soros and Pershing Square are buying — then mirror the smart money in Gloria Finance. Follow the greats → What’s actually changing KRX is covering listed stocks and depositary receipts on both its KOSPI and KOSDAQ boards. ETFs and ETNs are excluded from the new session, at least for now. Only limit orders will be accepted, meaning traders cannot place market orders that execute at whatever price is available. Price movement caps are set at 30%, and the exchange will use time-based volatility interruptions to cool things down if trading gets disorderly. Thirty-eight brokerages have signed up to participate, and they represent 95.2% of current trading volume, so the session will have meaningful coverage from day one. Advertisement The extended hours are partly about domestic convenience. South Korean retail investors who work standard office hours have historically missed intraday moves and had no legitimate channel to react to after-close news until the next morning. The new session gives them a window to trade after work. The competitive pressure behind the decision KRX didn’t arrive at this decision in a vacuum. Nextrade, an alternative trading platform, introduced its own extended trading hours in 2025 and began pulling volume away from the incumbent exchange. Macro, rates, and crypto—what moved markets and what matters next. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. The longer-term target is more ambitious than a four-hour evening window. KRX has laid out a roadmap toward 12-hour daily trading as a first milestone, with a full 24-hour market targeted by December 2027. Foreign investor access has been a persistent sticking point for Korean equities. The country’s stock market has long traded at a discount to peers in developed markets, a phenomenon Korean financial authorities have labeled the “Korea discount.” KRX has separately discussed reducing settlement cycles as part of the same broader accessibility push, since faster settlement reduces counterparty risk and makes Korean equities more attractive to global funds operating under tight margin and collateral requirements. What investors should watch The immediate risk with any extended-hours session is liquidity. The 95.2% brokerage coverage figure suggests KRX has done the work to ensure the infrastructure is in place. Participation at that level means most investors will have access through their existing broker. For foreign investors specifically, the evening session overlaps with morning hours in Europe, which creates a genuine window where Korean and European market participants can trade simultaneously.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has accused the United States of committing war crimes following reported explosions on Iran’s Qeshm Island, located near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The incident, reported by Iranian state media, remains …

President Masoud Pezeshkian has accused the United States of committing war crimes following reported explosions on Iran’s Qeshm Island, located near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The incident, reported by Iranian state media, remains shrouded in uncertainty as the origin of the explosions is still unclear. Local authorities have not confirmed any damages or casualties, although the sounds were speculated to have come from the sea. This development occurs amid ongoing military and diplomatic tensions between the US and Iran, with previous US military strikes targeting Iranian assets in the region. Advertisement Key Takeaways The accusation by President Pezeshkian appears to increase political tensions within Iran, suggesting potential instability in his leadership position. Market pricing suggests a slight increase in the likelihood of Pezeshkian’s departure, with YES odds currently at 12% for a resolution by December 31. The ongoing conflict and Pezeshkian’s strong rhetoric may indicate further diplomatic strain, influencing related markets such as the US-Iran ceasefire. What to Watch Observers should monitor any formal statements from Iranian authorities or confirmations regarding the explosions’ origin, as these could impact Pezeshkian’s political standing. Statements from key Iranian figures such as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or the IRGC may provide further insight into the political climate. Additionally, any changes in US-Iran diplomatic relations or military actions could significantly influence market perceptions of Pezeshkian’s leadership stability. Markets will also be attentive to any developments in ceasefire negotiations or related military actions in the region. Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

A record number is flashing across the US housing market. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 57.9% in August, the widest gap in Redfin records going back to 2013. It sounds like America is drowning in …

A record number is flashing across the US housing market. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 57.9% in August, the widest gap in Redfin records going back to 2013. It sounds like America is drowning in homes for sale. But most can't find a buyer. Redfin estimates a… A record number is flashing across the US housing market. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 57.9% in August, the widest gap in Redfin records going back to 2013.It sounds like America is drowning in home…

When traditional markets closed for the holiday, onchain equity trading barely noticed The New York Stock Exchange went dark for Labor Day weekend. Tokenized stocks on decentralized exchanges kept right on trading, generating roughly …

When traditional markets closed for the holiday, onchain equity trading barely noticed The New York Stock Exchange went dark for Labor Day weekend. Tokenized stocks on decentralized exchanges kept right on trading, generating roughly $1.01 billion in volume on Saturday and Sunday alone, nearly matching Friday’s $1.02 billion. Monday’s holiday added another $398.3 million on top. Gloria Bull case, bear case, or the catalyst that breaks it — Gloria Finance runs the whole research in one click. Run a playbook → Robinhood Chain dominated the weekend Of the four major platforms facilitating tokenized stock trades, Robinhood Chain was the heavyweight. It processed $572.8 million in trades over the holiday weekend, accounting for more than 57% of total activity. Advertisement According to Grayscale research published in early September 2026, Robinhood Chain, alongside Binance’s BNB Chain and Solana, has emerged as one of the leading networks for onchain equity trading. BNB Chain’s bStocks platform made its own mark. A single fund, QQQB (a tokenized version of Nasdaq 100 exposure), generated $180.5 million during the holiday weekend. BNB Chain’s cumulative tokenized stock volume has now exceeded $5.2 billion. The news moving money, markets, and the world—before your day starts. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. Then there’s Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2 network, which launched its B20-standard tokens for tokenized equities back in August. Base hit $100 million in single-day DEX volume for tokenized stocks and racked up $730.9 million in cumulative volume over the 30 days leading into mid-September. Much of that activity flowed through Aerodrome, the leading DEX on Base. Why after-hours trading matters Traditional US equity markets operate roughly 6.5 hours per weekday. That’s about 32.5 hours a week out of 168 total hours. Tokenized stocks flip that constraint on its head. By wrapping equity exposure into onchain tokens that trade on DEXes, platforms like Backed Finance’s xStocks and Ondo Global Markets allow trading around the clock, seven days a week. The prices of these tokenized stocks typically hover near the previous market close, but the tokens still move based on sentiment, breaking news, and speculative positioning. The competitive landscape is heating up Weekly spot volumes for tokenized stocks approached $3 billion in the week before the holiday, according to Grayscale’s research. Robinhood Chain’s dominance over the weekend, with nearly 60% market share, gives it a significant lead. Base’s rapid growth since its August launch shows how quickly the landscape can shift, hitting $730.9 million in 30-day cumulative volume within weeks of going live. BNB Chain’s cumulative tokenized stock volume crossing $5.2 billion reflects retail demand from Binance’s global audience translating effectively to onchain activity.

A projectile strike on a vessel in the world's most critical oil chokepoint adds to months of escalating disruptions that have cratered shipping traffic and pushed Brent crude past $100 A projectile struck a …

A projectile strike on a vessel in the world's most critical oil chokepoint adds to months of escalating disruptions that have cratered shipping traffic and pushed Brent crude past $100 A projectile struck a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz on September 12-13, according to an advisory from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. The condition of the crew and the extent of the damage remain unclear. The strait, a narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, normally handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day. That’s about 20% of the world’s supply flowing through a corridor barely 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Gloria Your portfolio shows you what you own. Gloria Finance shows you what's worth looking at next. Discover ideas → Advertisement A chokepoint under siege This latest incident is not an isolated event. The conflict has involved US and Israeli forces operating against Iran, with persistent shipping attacks and attempted truces that have done little to restore normal passage. Drone and missile strikes from Iran, along with retaliatory US operations targeting Iranian vessels, have turned one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors into something closer to a gauntlet. On disrupted days, vessel transits through the strait have plummeted to as few as 5 to 10 ships. The pre-conflict norm was over 130 per day. Oil flow volumes have at times dipped to roughly 2 million barrels per day, a 90% decline from normal throughput. The news moving money, markets, and the world—before your day starts. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. Saudi pipeline adds another pressure point The strait attack arrived just days after Saudi Arabia temporarily shut down its East-West pipeline following a drone attack attributed to Iranian-backed militias operating from Iraq. That pipeline typically moves 4 to 5 million barrels of oil per day, serving as one of the few alternative routes that bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint entirely. Markets react predictably Brent crude prices surged past $100 per barrel in September 2026, building on earlier spikes that followed attacks in June. Insurance costs for vessels transiting the strait have already climbed dramatically since the conflict began, and underwriters are reassessing risk models with every new UKMTO advisory.

The National Data Administration is building a regulatory framework for robots that can see, touch, and interact with the physical world. China’s National Data Administration is drafting standards for embodied artificial intelligence, the branch …

The National Data Administration is building a regulatory framework for robots that can see, touch, and interact with the physical world. China’s National Data Administration is drafting standards for embodied artificial intelligence, the branch of AI that gives machines the ability to perceive and physically interact with their environment. The agency also plans to guide local governments on data governance as the country races to turn humanoid robots from lab curiosities into commercial products. Embodied AI is the term for intelligence that lives inside a physical body, whether that’s a warehouse robot, a surgical arm, or a full humanoid. Training these systems requires enormous, high-quality datasets capturing real-world physics, spatial awareness, and human movement. Gloria See exactly what Buffett, Soros and Pershing Square are buying — then mirror the smart money in Gloria Finance. Follow the greats → What the NDA is actually doing The NDA’s initiative centers on two priorities. First, it will develop formal standards governing how data for embodied AI is collected, labeled, stored, and shared. Second, it will strengthen planning guidance for provincial and municipal authorities, while offering support to companies looking to boost their investments in data resources. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had already formed a dedicated standardization committee for humanoid robotics. That committee published the country’s first national standards framework on February 28, 2026, laying out guidelines across six critical areas including data lifecycle management. Advertisement An industry benchmarking standard for embodied AI took effect on June 1, 2026, giving companies a concrete yardstick against which to measure their systems. The NDA’s latest move layers data-specific rules on top of that existing structure. Why data is the bottleneck Large language models like the ones powering chatbots can be trained on oceans of text scraped from the internet. Embodied AI doesn’t have that luxury. Teaching a robot to fold laundry or navigate a factory floor requires carefully curated datasets that map physical interactions, not just words on a screen. AI, tech, and the markets they move—in one daily briefing. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. Companies in the space are reportedly building over 1 million hours of proprietary or open datasets specifically for embodied AI systems. By standardizing formats, labeling conventions, and sharing protocols, the regulator is trying to make it easier for companies to pool resources and avoid duplicating effort. Uniform data standards also lower the barrier for smaller firms that can’t afford to build massive proprietary datasets from scratch. China’s National Development and Reform Commission has been working in parallel. Measures released by the NDRC in late August 2026 include the establishment of dedicated training grounds and pilot bases where embodied AI systems can be deployed and tested in controlled real-world settings. The broader strategic picture Beijing has made humanoid robots a stated industrial priority, and the timeline is aggressive. The government is targeting notable advancements in embodied AI commercialization by the end of 2026, which means the regulatory scaffolding being assembled right now is meant to accelerate deployment, not slow it down. For manufacturers and technology firms, the implications are straightforward. Companies that align early with the emerging standards will find it easier to access government-backed testing facilities, participate in data-sharing ecosystems, and qualify for pilot programs.