MACRO & FED
Slashdot.org
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
Stock Market Today: Dow Slip; Oil Prices Surge; Nvdia Stock Down — Live Updates - WSJ
Stock Market Today: Dow Slip; Oil Prices Surge; Nvdia Stock Down — Live UpdatesWSJ 10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy and marketsCNN 10-year Treasury yield hits 5% for first time …
Stock Market Today: Dow Slip; Oil Prices Surge; Nvdia Stock Down — Live UpdatesWSJ 10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy and marketsCNN 10-year Treasury yield hits 5% for first time since 2023 as traders brace for Fed decision this… The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
MACRO & FED
Financial Post
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
Odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike in December rise with oil in the inflation ‘driver’s seat,’ say economists
Here's what economists had to say about inflation and what's next for the Bank of Canada and interest rates. Find out more here Canadas annual rate of inflation in August may have remained at …
Here's what economists had to say about inflation and what's next for the Bank of Canada and interest rates. Find out more here Canadas annual rate of inflation in August may have remained at three per cent, but some economists say the odds of a December rate hike by the Bank of Canada have increased due to surging global oil…
MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
Odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike in December rise with oil in the inflation 'driver's seat,' say economists
Canada’s annual rate of inflation in August may have remained at three per cent, but some economists say the odds of a December rate hike by the Bank of Canada have increased due to …
Canada’s annual rate of inflation in August may have remained at three per cent, but some economists say the odds of a December rate hike by the Bank of Canada have increased due to surging global oil prices .
The price of oil has risen 15 per cent in Septe… Canadas annual rate of inflation in August may have remained at three per cent, but some economists say the odds of a December rate hike by the Bank of Canada have increased due to surging global oil…
MACRO & FED
Slashdot.org
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
10-year Treasury yield tops 5% as oil surges and diesel hits all-time high - NBC News
10-year Treasury yield tops 5% as oil surges and diesel hits all-time highNBC News 10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy and marketsCNN Stock Market Today: Dow Slip; Oil Prices Surge; …
10-year Treasury yield tops 5% as oil surges and diesel hits all-time highNBC News 10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy and marketsCNN Stock Market Today: Dow Slip; Oil Prices Surge; Nvdia Stock Down — Live UpdatesWSJ US 10-year y… The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
MACRO & FED
Crypto Briefing
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
Venezuela’s dollarization proposal gains traction as inflation tops 500%
Opposition lawmakers are advancing a proposal to make the US dollar Venezuela’s official currency after years of inflation and economic turmoil. Sep. 14, 2026 A proposal to formally adopt the US dollar is moving …
Opposition lawmakers are advancing a proposal to make the US dollar Venezuela’s official currency after years of inflation and economic turmoil.
Sep. 14, 2026
A proposal to formally adopt the US dollar is moving into Venezuela’s political mainstream as the country seeks to stabilize an economy battered by years of inflation and turmoil.
Opposition lawmaker Antonio Ecarri is working with US economist Steve Hanke on legislation that would replace the bolivar with the dollar across Venezuela’s financial system.
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More than half of Venezuelans support the idea, according to a May AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News.
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Dollars are already widely used for pricing and savings after hyperinflation pushed businesses and households toward the US currency around 2019.
Under official dollarization, bolivar cash, deposits, debts, contracts, and wages would be converted into dollars at a set exchange rate.
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Ecarri plans to present the proposal to the National Assembly, but its president, Jorge Rodríguez, has rejected the idea. He cited constitutional provisions that establish the bolivar as Venezuela’s monetary unit and give the central bank authority over monetary policy.
Supporters say dollarization could reduce inflation exposure, prevent deficit financing through money creation, and remove frictions from using two currencies.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also said the dollar should become central to Venezuela’s trade, although the US government has not announced plans to replace the bolivar as legal tender.
The plan would carry major trade-offs. Venezuela would lose control over its monetary policy and exchange rate, while its supply of dollars would depend on exports, investment, remittances, or external borrowing.
Dollarization would not by itself guarantee fiscal discipline, revive oil production, restore credit markets, or attract investment.
MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
Warsh's credibility is on the line this week as Trump policies put pressure on Fed to hike
Before President Donald Trump reels off angry Truth Social posts if the Federal Reserve hikes rates this week, he should look in the mirror: His policies are a big reason the central bank has …
Before President Donald Trump reels off angry Truth Social posts if the Federal Reserve hikes rates this week, he should look in the mirror: His policies are a big reason the central bank has to consider a rate increase.
In March, one month after the beginnin… Before President Donald Trump reels off angry Truth Social posts if the Federal Reserve hikes rates this week, he should look in the mirror: His policies are a big reason the central bank has to cons…
MACRO & FED
Biztoc.com
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
The U.S. economy faces mounting headwinds. Here are the top risks
The U.S. economy has remained resilient over the past two years despite a slowing labor market, trade wars and resurgent inflation, but economists are now warning that a convergence of new and lingering threats …
The U.S. economy has remained resilient over the past two years despite a slowing labor market, trade wars and resurgent inflation, but economists are now warning that a convergence of new and lingering threats could test its strength.
The "worry list is grow… The U.S. economy has remained resilient over the past two years despite a slowing labor market, trade wars and resurgent inflation, but economists are now warning that a convergence of new and linger…
MACRO & FED
Tom's Hardware UK
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
Anthropic says AI can boost U.S. GDP by 32%, up to $44.4 trillion in four years — economics model predicts that displaced employees 'may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse'
Last week, Anthropic published its prediction of what the economic impact of AI on the U.S. economy is going to be for the next few years. The company thinks the U.S. can reach a …
Last week, Anthropic published its prediction of what the economic impact of AI on the U.S. economy is going to be for the next few years. The company thinks the U.S. can reach a $44.4 trillion GDP or higher by 2030, provided, of course, it conveniently adopts AI at a rapid pace. Having said that, Anthropic admits "the challenge is making sure that the gains are broadly shared."
The interactive post has a simulator where readers can plug in their estimates on key factors and get their own future predictions, within the firm's analysis and perspective. That's definitely interesting to play around with, but perhaps the most relevant piece of information is the lens through which Anthropic views the world.
Anthropic establishes its reasoning by first placing tasks in broad categories and using a nurse's workday as an example. They removed tasks, including those that will disappear naturally as technology progresses, like collecting data on paper or physically visiting the patient to collect basic vitals — neither happens anymore as remote monitoring becomes commonplace. However, some new tasks are added, like keeping an eye on dashboards for the aforementioned AI-powered monitoring.
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Then, there are naturally the tasks that a bot can't perform, like bathing a patient. Augmented tasks include those that require a human, but can be made more efficient with AI: helping with triage, planning schedules, and assisting with dashboard data. Some tasks may be fully automated, like keeping supply closets full or scheduling follow-up patient visits. Finally, AI usage can introduce some tasks of its own, like reviewing automated triaging or double-checking dashboard alerts — perhaps even impromptu data recovery.
The company's predictions broadly hinge on how ubiquitous AI usage becomes, and therefore, the number of tasks transitioning into fully or partially automated. Unsurprisingly, Anthropic believes that the more entrenched AI gets, the more value the country creates, though at greater risk — and on an exponential scale, no less
Three models are presented, from "modest" economical impact to "extreme." The modest model establishes a 1.6% GDP rise to $34.1 trillion, an impact Anthropic says is in line with that of new technologies like the internet, and crucially, doesn't imply tectonic shifts to unemployment rates or wages.
For the "substantial impact" scenario, although AI is predicted to be able to do half of "knowledge work," mostly without intervention, adoption remains limited. This scenario foresees twice the normal economic growth, this time +8.3% to $36.3 trillion.
This future marks the inflection point at which Anthropic believes knowledge workers see their wages remain steady instead of growing, though it's not clear if the firm accounts for inflation. Additionally, the firm states that "knowledge workers may see a lot of automation and displacement [...] coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse", a statement some might argue is already true. In that sense, Anthropic expects other workers to start seeing more cash.
The eyebrow-raising prediction for both the above scenarios, though, is that Anthropic expects unemployment to "stay within ranges history has seen before," an odd statement given modern U.S. history contains events like the Great Depression. The company does note that it expects job churn to increase, but also that while "this process can be painful, [it] works relatively well from a macroeconomic perspective." Average wages are expected to rise across all three scenarios, though the increase is expected to go towards workers outside of knowledge areas.
In the "extreme" scenario, Anthropic expects significant changes. Should AI be super-widely adopted, the GDP can increase by 32.4%, corresponding to a cool $44.4 trillion, a "profound economic transformation." This is the point at which the firm expects that AI becomes more productive than humans for most knowledge work, and does so with near-autonomy. Equally worryingly, it's expected that there will be "essentially no" new knowledge tasks created.
Anthropic notes that to reach this kind of stage, the country would "likely require" recursively self-improving AI (using the AI to make better AI). There's a significant catch, however, as though the U.S. would be "far richer than [it's] ever been," knowledge workers would be the hardest hit with a 10% wage drop, plus overall unemployment would climb "beyond typical recessionary levels." Manual labor would be prized, though, given that "as AI increases productivity within knowledge work, the demand for manual work that benefits from that productivity will increase."
Scenarios aside, the one big question is: How would all that GDP money land in people's pockets? Anthropic admits this problem is a "challenge" and offers little solution for it. Such a high amount of future AI penetration might prove a hard sell, considering wealth inequality in the U.S. already sits at its highest level for the last few decades and is trending in that direction in most developed nations. Others might argue with Anthropic's assessment that unemployment levels would remain somewhat in the less extreme scenarios, seeing as job cuts are rampant across many sectors and have hit technology-related fields the hardest.
To its credit, Anthropic clearly highlights part of the wealth-inequality issue. The company admits that more AI automation might skew the current 60/40% balance between labor and capital, respectively, strongly tilting the scale in favor of capital ownership and increasing inequality. Many argue that's already happening today. There's also the matter that the prediction appears to assume little competition from other countries, nor does it offer insight as to what would happen to "AI-less" nations.
The interactive blog post and its simulator are worth a good read and fiddling with, regardless. Anthropic published the technical details on the mathematical model used in a separate article and published its Economic Policy Framework last June.
MACRO & FED
ABC News (AU)
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
The RBA says Aussies are 'furious' about inflation. Many are angrier with the bank
Some of the main drivers of high inflation are supply issues caused by the US-Iran war and American tech giants spending huge amounts on AI, which are not problems a rate hike will solve. …
Some of the main drivers of high inflation are supply issues caused by the US-Iran war and American tech giants spending huge amounts on AI, which are not problems a rate hike will solve. Bloodletting is an ancient therapy, dating back at least three millennia, and traditionally used to "cure" a range of ills.
Whether through leeches or lancets, blood was drawn from the patient to re…
MACRO & FED
The Times of India
15 Sep 2026 · 16:45
SBI Research, IDFC First expect rate hike in October as crude prices climb: Higher oil prices & inflation raise likelihood of policy tightening
Economists are gearing up for a potential rate hike from the central bank as soon as October, driven by escalating crude oil prices and ongoing food inflation concerns. The CEO of Axis Bank has …
Economists are gearing up for a potential rate hike from the central bank as soon as October, driven by escalating crude oil prices and ongoing food inflation concerns. The CEO of Axis Bank has raised alarms about the increasing risks of inflation. This shift… Some economists have brought forward their forecasts for a rate hike by the central bank to as early as October, overturning earlier expectations that the rates would be held steady for the rest of t…