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A week of heavy redemptions reversed nearly half the previous week's inflows as rate hike expectations surged to 87% US spot Bitcoin ETFs just had their worst week in months, shedding roughly $462.7 million …

A week of heavy redemptions reversed nearly half the previous week's inflows as rate hike expectations surged to 87% US spot Bitcoin ETFs just had their worst week in months, shedding roughly $462.7 million in net outflows between September 8 and 11. The reversal is especially jarring given that the previous week saw nearly $987 million flow in the opposite direction, including a single-day haul of about $730.9 million on September 3. Markets are now pricing in an approximately 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, and institutional investors appear to be pulling back from risk assets accordingly. Gloria Wall Street's edge, now anyone's — Gloria Finance is your agentic-AI investment research terminal. Get the edge → Advertisement Where the money went September 10 was the ugliest day of the bunch, with $282.6 million leaving spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single session. ARK 21Shares’ ARKB bore the brunt of it, accounting for roughly $164.3 million of that daily exodus. Grayscale’s GBTC, BlackRock’s IBIT, and Fidelity’s FBTC rounded out the list of products seeing meaningful redemptions. Bitcoin’s price reflected the mood, sliding from approximately $77,362 to about $76,816 over the same stretch. The news moving money, markets, and the world—before your day starts. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. The Fed factor An 87% implied probability of a rate hike is about as close to a foregone conclusion as markets get without the Fed explicitly telegraphing the move. Higher rates tend to strengthen the dollar and raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Treasury yields have climbed in tandem with these expectations, creating additional pressure on risk assets across the board. The bigger picture still looks solid Cumulative net inflows into these products since their January 2024 launch have surpassed $55 billion. Total assets under management across the category sit somewhere between $97 billion and $148 billion, depending on which tracker you consult. A single week of $462 million in outflows, while notable, represents less than 1% of total AUM even on the conservative end of estimates.

Crude oil all time high predictions The recent surge in oil prices has sparked a debate in the UK over potential interest rate adjustments. Rising oil prices, which have exceeded $100 a barrel, are …

Crude oil all time high predictions The recent surge in oil prices has sparked a debate in the UK over potential interest rate adjustments. Rising oil prices, which have exceeded $100 a barrel, are influencing inflation expectations and financial conditions in the UK. The Bank of England’s current Bank Rate is 3.75%, and despite the inflation rate being above its 2% target, economists had previously anticipated rates to remain unchanged in the upcoming decision on September 17. However, the oil price increase has led to some speculation about a possible rate hike. UK government bond yields have also risen, reflecting concerns over tighter financial conditions and inflationary pressures. Advertisement Key Takeaways The oil price surge appears to have prompted discussions over potential rate hikes in the UK, with market participants speculating about changes to the Bank of England’s current stance. Recent movements in UK government bond yields suggest heightened concerns over inflation, which could influence the Bank of England’s decision-making process. Market pricing implies increased consideration of a Bank of England rate hike, although the consensus among economists remains that rates may stay unchanged. What to Watch Market participants will closely monitor the Bank of England’s upcoming decision on September 17 for any indications regarding interest rate adjustments. Developments in global oil markets, particularly any further price increases or geopolitical tensions, could influence the likelihood of crude oil reaching new all-time highs, as suggested by current market odds. Additionally, changes in UK inflation data and government bond yields will be key indicators to watch in assessing the Bank of England’s future policy directions. Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

The new Fed chair promised to fight inflation, and now the math is fighting back Kevin Warsh spent years criticizing the Federal Reserve from the outside. Now he’s running it, and the view from …

The new Fed chair promised to fight inflation, and now the math is fighting back Kevin Warsh spent years criticizing the Federal Reserve from the outside. Now he’s running it, and the view from the inside looks a lot less comfortable. Three months into his tenure as Fed Chair, Warsh finds himself caught between persistent inflation running above 3%, a president who wants lower interest rates, and a market that’s already pricing in a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Bloomberg’s John Authers has a name for this predicament: a rates trap. Gloria A stock you don't own just moved — and two you do depend on it. Gloria Finance sees the connections others miss. See the connections → The trap takes shape Warsh was sworn in on May 22, 2026, bringing with him a hawkish reputation forged during years of public commentary about the Fed’s missteps. He had repeatedly blamed the central bank’s flexible average inflation targeting framework, adopted in 2020, as a policy error that let price pressures build unchecked. Advertisement July 2026 inflation readings showed both headline and core measures running above 3%, well north of the Fed’s 2% target. That marks roughly 65 months of elevated inflation by Warsh’s own count, a figure he cited publicly while insisting the Fed still has “work to do” to restore price stability. At his Jackson Hole speech on August 28, 2026, with the federal funds rate sitting at 3.5%-3.75%, Warsh emphasized that the central bank needs concrete evidence before adjusting rates in either direction. Market-implied probability for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting has exceeded 85%. The news moving money, markets, and the world—before your day starts. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. Caught between the data and the White House President Trump has been vocal about wanting lower interest rates, a stance that predates Warsh’s appointment. Instead, Warsh appears to be leaning into the inflation fight. His Jackson Hole remarks represented a noticeable pivot from earlier rhetoric that had focused on AI-driven productivity gains as a potential offset to inflationary pressures. Authers noted on August 13, 2026, that inflation remains “too high” to give the Fed any room for cuts. What a hawkish Fed means for markets A 25-basis-point hike in September would push the federal funds rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range. The fact that the hike is largely priced in at 85%-plus probability means the move itself might not shock equities, but the forward guidance accompanying it could. For crypto markets specifically, the implications are material. Tighter monetary policy tends to drain liquidity from the financial system, and digital assets have historically been sensitive to shifts in the liquidity environment. Bitcoin and other major tokens rallied during periods of loose monetary policy and struggled when central banks tightened. The September FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will be Warsh’s first real test of whether he can translate hawkish conviction into hawkish action while managing the fallout. Markets are betting he will.

Xi jinping US visit timing Former U.S. President Donald Trump has alleged that China is spying on the United States, following a report linking Chinese satellite imagery to an Iranian attack that resulted in …

Xi jinping US visit timing Former U.S. President Donald Trump has alleged that China is spying on the United States, following a report linking Chinese satellite imagery to an Iranian attack that resulted in the deaths of three U.S. service members in Jordan. This accusation comes amid ongoing tensions between Washington and Beijing, which have historically involved mutual allegations of espionage and cyber operations. The situation potentially complicates diplomatic relations further, as markets adjust to the possibility of increased strain between the two nations. The U.S. has not publicly identified the Chinese firms involved, and China has denied similar past allegations. Advertisement Key Takeaways Market activity suggests a reduction in the likelihood of Xi Jinping visiting the U.S. before 2027, with pricing reflecting increased diplomatic tensions. Trump’s comments appear to have influenced a decrease in confidence for near-term visits, with the September 24 sub-market dropping from 92% to 87.5% YES. The broader U.S.-China rivalry and its potential impacts on diplomatic engagements could indicate further volatility in related prediction markets. What to Watch Markets are closely reflecting any developments from both Washington and Beijing that could affect the probability of a visit. An official statement from Chinese or U.S. government officials, either confirming or denying plans for Xi Jinping’s visit, would be a key indicator of potential market movement. Additionally, any escalation in rhetoric or policy actions between the two countries could further impact market perceptions of future diplomatic engagements. Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

The EU's long-awaited single data feed for equities and ETFs arrives after nearly two decades of fragmented markets, with free access for retail investors. European equity markets just got something the US has had …

The EU's long-awaited single data feed for equities and ETFs arrives after nearly two decades of fragmented markets, with free access for retail investors. European equity markets just got something the US has had since the 1970s: a single tape showing stock prices across all major exchanges. EuroCTP B.V., authorized by the European Securities and Markets Authority on July 27, 2026, will begin distributing unified market data on September 14, aggregating feeds from roughly 130 trading venues and approved publication arrangements across the European Union. What the consolidated tape actually does The consolidated tape creates a single, standardized data feed. It will include the European Best Bid and Offer, or EBBO, a benchmark that shows the best available prices for buying and selling equities across the entire EU market at any given moment. Gloria Own any of the names in this story? See what today's moves actually do to your portfolio. Open in Gloria → EuroCTP is structured as a joint venture headquartered in the Netherlands. It was selected through a competitive process in December 2025, and ESMA has granted it a five-year term to operate the consolidated tape. Distribution will run through dxFeed’s platform starting September 14, with a transition period extending through September 30. Advertisement Who pays and who doesn’t Access to the consolidated tape data will be free for non-professional users and regulated entities. Professional users, including institutional traders and data vendors, will pay tiered fees. That pricing structure is deliberate. The EU has been trying to boost retail participation in its equity markets as part of the broader Savings and Investments Union initiative. Macro, rates, and crypto—what moved markets and what matters next. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. Why it took so long The idea of a European consolidated tape has been debated, studied, and shelved multiple times since the original Markets in Financial Instruments Directive created the fragmented landscape in 2007. The breakthrough came through MiFIR reforms that gave ESMA the authority to select and authorize a consolidated tape provider through a formal competitive process. That process concluded in December 2025 with EuroCTP’s selection, and the authorization followed seven months later. To put the timeline in perspective: the US established its Consolidated Tape Association in 1974. Europe is arriving at roughly the same destination 52 years later. Market implications and what to watch Analysts at Goldman Sachs have predicted the consolidated tape will enhance market visibility and execution benchmarking, with the potential to attract increased investment flows into EU equities. The September 14 launch and the transition period through September 30 will be closely watched by market structure analysts and trading firms across the continent.

Stéphane Boujnah says a merger would make strategic sense, while simultaneously explaining why it won't happen anytime soon Euronext CEO Stéphane Boujnah has a very specific talent: making a deal sound inevitable and impossible …

Stéphane Boujnah says a merger would make strategic sense, while simultaneously explaining why it won't happen anytime soon Euronext CEO Stéphane Boujnah has a very specific talent: making a deal sound inevitable and impossible in the same breath. His latest comments on a potential combination with Deutsche Börse follow that tradition almost perfectly. Speaking in May 2026, Boujnah acknowledged that a merger between Europe’s two largest exchange operators would be logically compelling, then noted that Euronext had already tried to make it happen three times without success. The implication being that the fourth attempt is not exactly on the calendar. Gloria See exactly what Buffett, Soros and Pershing Square are buying — then mirror the smart money in Gloria Finance. Follow the greats → The logic is clear, the obstacles are clearer On paper, a Euronext-Deutsche Börse combination would create something close to a pan-European exchange behemoth. Euronext already operates bourses in Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin, Lisbon, Milan, Oslo, Paris, and Athens, covering a combined market capitalization of roughly €6.8 trillion. That figure is nearly triple Deutsche Börse’s own market footprint, which tells you something about the relative negotiating positions involved. Boujnah has been building toward this scale methodically since taking the CEO role in 2015. The group bought Borsa Italiana from the London Stock Exchange Group in 2021, adding Milan to a network that had been primarily Western European. More recently, Euronext added the Athens Stock Exchange, extending its reach into southeastern Europe. Advertisement A Deutsche Börse deal would be a different category of transaction entirely. Frankfurt’s exchange is not just a stock market. It operates Clearstream, one of Europe’s major post-trade and securities settlement infrastructures, along with derivatives platform Eurex. Folding that into Euronext’s architecture would be an integration project measured in years, not quarters. Then there is the ownership problem. Two of Euronext’s most significant shareholders are state-backed institutions: Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, the Italian state investment bank, and Caisse des Dépôts, its French equivalent, each holding an 8.1% stake. Italian lender Intesa Sanpaolo holds a further 1.55%. Any share-based merger would dilute those positions, which is exactly the kind of outcome that makes government-linked investors uncomfortable. Macro, rates, and crypto—what moved markets and what matters next. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. Boujnah signaled as much in February 2026, when he described potential joint ventures with Deutsche Börse as genuinely interesting while reiterating that neither exchange was for sale. Why Brussels is paying close attention The backdrop to all of this is an accelerating European policy conversation about capital market competitiveness. The Capital Markets Union project, which has been discussed in various forms for the better part of a decade, has gained new urgency following Brexit and the broader geopolitical shifts encouraging European financial autonomy. Euronext is also navigating political pressure from a different direction. The Italian government has been scrutinizing Euronext’s management of Borsa Italiana since the acquisition, with periodic concerns about whether Milan is receiving sufficient strategic priority within the group. What this means for exchange investors and market structure The realistic read is that Euronext will continue its current playbook: selective acquisitions of smaller national exchanges, incremental technology investments, and exploratory conversations with Deutsche Börse about specific product or infrastructure collaborations. What makes this moment notable is the public candor. Exchange CEOs do not typically narrate their failed deal history in testimony and then describe the deal as strategically sound in the next sentence. The fact that Boujnah is willing to say the merger would make sense, while being equally direct that it is not imminent, suggests he is trying to shape the conversation rather than close it.

Iran full airspace closure The CIA reportedly employed a deception campaign and classified technology to locate a downed U.S. Air Force officer in Iran, according to CBS News. This development was followed by U.S. …

Iran full airspace closure The CIA reportedly employed a deception campaign and classified technology to locate a downed U.S. Air Force officer in Iran, according to CBS News. This development was followed by U.S. military action, including bombing and drone strikes targeting nearby IRGC positions, as well as the entry of over 90 American troops into Iranian territory for a rescue operation. The incident underscores the high level of escalation in the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has seen periodic military engagements and no lasting resolution despite previous diplomatic efforts. Markets appear to interpret these actions as a significant escalation but not directly indicative of an immediate full airspace closure by Iran. Advertisement Key Takeaways The CIA’s involvement and the subsequent military actions suggest heightened tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict, but markets see this as not directly leading to imminent airspace closure. The probability of Iran implementing a full airspace closure by December 31 has decreased, reflecting the market’s interpretation of these developments as not sufficiently immediate. Current odds for a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 remain relatively stable, with minor fluctuations indicating ongoing uncertainty about further military escalation. What to Watch Observers will be monitoring announcements from the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran for any statements about airspace status changes. Additionally, any escalation in military rhetoric or actions from the U.S. or Iran could influence market perceptions of the likelihood of further conflict. Developments in diplomatic engagements or potential de-escalation efforts will also be critical in shaping future market expectations. Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

U.S. senators have unveiled the final draft of the Crypto Clarity Act, setting the stage for a Senate vote scheduled on Tuesday. The legislation aims to delineate regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange …

U.S. senators have unveiled the final draft of the Crypto Clarity Act, setting the stage for a Senate vote scheduled on Tuesday. The legislation aims to delineate regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for digital assets and establish a registration framework for certain crypto venues. This procedural vote will determine whether the Senate will advance the debate on the bill, not its final passage. The act’s progression suggests a significant movement in the U.S. towards establishing a clearer regulatory landscape for digital assets. Advertisement Key Takeaways The final draft of the Crypto Clarity Act appears to have increased confidence in its potential passage, as indicated by the scheduled Senate vote. Market pricing suggests that participants view the bill’s advancement as supportive of the YES outcome for it being signed into law in 2026. The legislation is expected to clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, potentially affecting non-decentralized crypto protocols. What to Watch The upcoming Senate vote on Tuesday is crucial in determining whether the bill will advance to further debate, which could influence its chances of becoming law. Key figures to monitor include President Donald Trump and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott, as their support or opposition may significantly impact the bill’s trajectory. Additionally, any statements or actions from the White House or related committees could provide further indications of the bill’s potential success or delay. Markets will be attentive to developments that align with either the advancement or postponement of the Crypto Clarity Act. Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

Anthropic has reportedly entered into a significant $13.7 billion agreement with RUM Group for compute services at its Maysville, Georgia site. This development aligns with RUM Group’s disclosure of a six-year GPU-services contract with …

Anthropic has reportedly entered into a significant $13.7 billion agreement with RUM Group for compute services at its Maysville, Georgia site. This development aligns with RUM Group’s disclosure of a six-year GPU-services contract with an unnamed U.S.-based cloud customer, as mentioned in their recent SEC filing. While the site is still under development, this move reinforces Anthropic’s strategy to expand its computing capabilities amidst the ongoing AI infrastructure race. The company has previously secured large-scale partnerships, including one with Google and Broadcom earlier this year, suggesting a robust commitment to building out infrastructure across multiple vendors. Advertisement Key Takeaways The $13.7 billion compute deal suggests Anthropic is aggressively expanding its computational capacity to support future growth. Market activity reflects a mixed response, with some participants showing increased confidence in Anthropic’s valuation prospects. The deal highlights Anthropic’s strategy to diversify its infrastructure partners, potentially reducing reliance on single vendors. What to Watch Markets will likely monitor further announcements from Anthropic regarding additional infrastructure deals or strategic partnerships that could influence valuation outcomes. Any updates on the progress of the Maysville, Georgia site development may impact market sentiment. Observers will also focus on how this deal integrates with Anthropic’s existing partnerships, particularly with major players like Google and Broadcom, to assess the potential for enhanced valuation by year-end. Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

The Chinese AI model maker wasted no time tapping investors after its six-month lockup expired, pulling in billions to fund R&D and acquisitions Zhipu AI, the Chinese artificial intelligence company behind the GLM series …

The Chinese AI model maker wasted no time tapping investors after its six-month lockup expired, pulling in billions to fund R&D and acquisitions Zhipu AI, the Chinese artificial intelligence company behind the GLM series of large language models, returned to Hong Kong’s equity market with force after its six-month post-IPO lockup expired on July 8, 2026. The company raised approximately HK$31.41 billion, roughly $4 billion, through a share placement just days after insiders were free to sell. For context, that single placement raised more than seven times what the company pulled in during its January 2026 IPO. Gloria See what insiders and Congress are actually buying. Gloria Finance surfaces the moves worth a second look. Follow the money → From IPO darling to fundraising machine Zhipu AI first listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2026, pricing shares at HK$116.2 apiece and raising about $558 million. The stock surged more than 2,000% after its debut, briefly pushing the company’s market capitalization above HK$1 trillion. Advertisement The $4 billion placement wasn’t the end of it, either. By September 2026, the company had returned to the market again, raising an additional $5 billion through a combination of new shares and zero-coupon convertible bonds set to mature in 2027. Across the IPO and two follow-on rounds, Zhipu has pulled in close to $9.5 billion in less than nine months. Where the money is going Zhipu AI has earmarked proceeds from its fundraising spree for research and development, commercialization of its AI models, mergers and acquisitions, and general working capital. The news moving money, markets, and the world—before your day starts. Daily. Free. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy. Email address Subscribe free We respect your privacy. Unsubscribe anytime. The zero-coupon structure means Zhipu isn’t paying interest on $5 billion worth of debt-like instruments, effectively getting free financing until 2027 maturity, assuming the bonds convert to equity at favorable prices. The bigger picture for Chinese AI listings Zhipu’s fundraising success reflects a broader trend of Chinese technology companies choosing Hong Kong as their listing venue, particularly under the exchange’s specialist-technology regime. That framework, designed to attract pre-revenue or early-revenue tech firms, has turned Hong Kong into the go-to market for Chinese AI companies seeking public capital. Beijing’s policy support for the domestic AI sector provides a favorable tailwind. The Chinese government has made artificial intelligence a strategic priority, and companies operating in the space benefit from a regulatory environment that encourages growth and investment.