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I have studied American elections for more than four decades, and I am wary of the word "unprecedented." Pundits use it for every news cycle. But as the country heads toward the November 3 …

I have studied American elections for more than four decades, and I am wary of the word "unprecedented." Pundits use it for every news cycle. But as the country heads toward the November 3 midterms, I cannot find another word that fits. Never in the era of modern polling has a president taken his party into a midterm with all four of these burdens at once: a deeply unpopular presidency, an economy most Americans say is failing them, an unpopular war, and pervasive public alarm about corruption. Any one of these can cost a party dearly. Two or three together have produced some of the worst midterm defeats in our history. All four, simultaneously, is new territory. Consider the numbers. Donald Trump's job approval now averages in the mid-to-high 30s, with several major polls finding it at 30 or 31 percent. That is roughly where he stood when he left office in January 2021, after January 6. On the economy, the AP-NORC poll finds about three in four Americans disapproving of his performance, and nearly four in five disapproving of his handling of the cost of living. Even among Republicans, fewer than half approve of how he has handled prices. The war with Iran began with less public support than any major American war in polling history, and it has lost ground since. Surveys now show it as unpopular as Iraq in 2006 and Vietnam in the early 1970s. One analysis of more than 150 surveys across seven major conflicts concluded that it is the most unpopular major war the United States has fought. And corruption, long a background complaint, has moved to the foreground. In a recent Fox News poll, 88 percent of voters said they were concerned about corruption in government, ranking it above inflation and gas prices. Nearly two in three Americans tell pollsters the president uses his office to enrich himself, with the fastest increase among Republican-leaning voters over the past year. Now look at history. In 1946, Harry Truman's approval sank to about one-third amid postwar inflation and strikes. Democrats lost 54 House seats, 11 Senate seats, and control over both chambers. But there was no unpopular war and no corruption scandal at the center of the campaign. In 1966, Lyndon Johnson’s Democrats lost House 47 seats, and 3 Senate seats, yet Vietnam had not yet turned a majority of Americans against it. In 1974, after Watergate and amid double-digit inflation, Republicans lost 48 House and 4 Senate seats. But American combat in Vietnam was largely over, and Gerald Ford had been president for only three months. The closest parallel is 2006. George W. Bush stood in the high 30s, Iraq was going badly, and Republicans were mired in the Abramoff and Foley scandals. Republicans lost 30 House seats, 6 Senate seats, and like the Democrats in 1946, control over both chambers. Yet even then, the economy was middling rather than broadly seen as broken. Bush had three strikes, not four. Harry Truman's Republican opponents did eventually assemble a four-part indictment of Korea, communism, corruption and a sputtering presidency. But that was the presidential election of 1952, not a midterm. My Keys to the White House predict presidential elections, not midterms. But they rest on the simple principle that American elections are referendums on the governance of the party in power. Several of the keys measure exactly the forces at work today: the short-term economy, scandal, and foreign or military failure. When those turn against the party holding the White House, voters notice. This year, they have turned all at once. Still, a historic environment does not guarantee a historic seat count. The House map is far less elastic than it was in 1946 or 1974. Two rounds of partisan line-drawing have shrunk the number of competitive districts. The Cook Political Report estimates Democrats must win 57 of 77 competitive seats to take the majority. Partisan polarization is also stronger than it was in Truman's day; a president at 35 percent keeps most of his own voters. And the Senate map leans Republican, with Democrats needing to win in Republican states to regain Senate control. When the president’s party is on defense in Texas, Ohio, and even Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, the national environment is doing the work. So four strikes may not pull the Republican Party completely under. A large popular-vote rebuke may yield a more modest shift in seats than the national mood would suggest. But let no one mistake the moment. Historians will look back at the conditions under which Americans voted in 2026, and they will find no midterm quite like it. Whatever the final tally, the verdict on this presidency is already written in the polls. On November 3, voters will decide how loudly to deliver it.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Fabio Panetta (pictured) said on Friday that additional interest rate hikes might be necessary in order to contain inflation."If international cond... European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council …

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Fabio Panetta (pictured) said on Friday that additional interest rate hikes might be necessary in order to contain inflation."If international cond... European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Fabio Panetta (pictured) said on Friday that additional interest rate hikes might be necessary in order to contain inflation."If international con…

Indian government bonds ended October with losses, marking a fourth consecutive decline in bond yields. Brent crude oil prices surged, raising inflation concerns for the country. The Reserve Bank of India raised its policy …

Indian government bonds ended October with losses, marking a fourth consecutive decline in bond yields. Brent crude oil prices surged, raising inflation concerns for the country. The Reserve Bank of India raised its policy rate for the first time in nearly fo… Indian government bonds ended a bruising October with fresh losses on Friday, marking a fourth straight monthly decline as oil's surge rekindled inflation fears and the central bank's broader tighten…

A conservative Georgia crowd delivered Fox News’ Steve Doocy a blunt message Friday regarding President Donald Trump’s war against Iran.Doocy was reporting live from Big Doug’s Place in Hiram, Georgia, Friday morning as part …

A conservative Georgia crowd delivered Fox News’ Steve Doocy a blunt message Friday regarding President Donald Trump’s war against Iran.Doocy was reporting live from Big Doug’s Place in Hiram, Georgia, Friday morning as part of “Breakfast with Friends,” a r… A conservative Georgia crowd delivered Fox News Steve Doocy a blunt message Friday regarding President Donald Trumps war against Iran. Doocy was reporting live from Big Dougs Place in Hiram, Georg…

Nikos Melachrinos October 30 02:39 Δείτε περισσότερα άρθρα μας στα αποτελέσματα αναζήτησης Add Protothema.gr on Google Citi forecasts resilient growth, strong investment activity and a continued decline in public debt for the Greek economy. …

Nikos Melachrinos October 30 02:39 Δείτε περισσότερα άρθρα μας στα αποτελέσματα αναζήτησης Add Protothema.gr on Google Citi forecasts resilient growth, strong investment activity and a continued decline in public debt for the Greek economy. It nevertheless warns that high inflation, the large current account deficit and political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections represent significant challenges. In its report on the global economic outlook, the US financial institution estimates that Greece’s GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2026 and 2027, before the growth rate slows to 1.5% in 2028. The institution believes that the Greek economy is maintaining positive momentum, primarily thanks to investment, while the favourable structure of public debt provides significant protection against turbulence in international markets. At the same time, Citi considers that, despite the possible re-emergence of political risk during the election year, economic policy is expected to maintain continuity and its existing direction after the elections. Investment drives growth Investment activity is the strongest driving force behind the Greek economy, according to Citi’s forecasts. Fixed capital investment is expected to increase by 8.3% in 2026, significantly outpacing the growth rates of private consumption and overall GDP. An increase of 6.5% is forecast for 2027, while the rate is expected to fall to 2.1% in 2028. Private consumption is estimated to grow by 1.3% this year and by 1.5% in both 2027 and 2028, suggesting that economic growth is being driven more by investment than by the momentum of consumer spending. Similarly, exports are forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027 and 2% in 2028, while imports are expected to rise by 3.7%, 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively. Inflation at 4.1% and pressure from energy prices The resurgence of inflationary pressures represents a significant challenge for the Greek economy. Citi forecasts that harmonised inflation will reach 4.1% in 2026, before easing to 3.5% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. This development is linked to the more adverse international energy environment, as the conflict between the United States and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices. In its global analysis, Citi puts the price of Brent crude at close to $115 per barrel, noting that energy costs are creating fresh pressure on businesses and households. For the Eurozone, the institution expects inflation of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, forecasting a further tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank. Public debt on a downward trajectory Although Greece’s public debt remains high, Citi acknowledges the continued improvement in the debt-to-GDP ratio. According to its estimates, this ratio will fall from 138% in 2026 to 135.8% in 2027 and 133.9% in 2028. The analyst emphasises that the favourable structure of Greek debt limits the country’s exposure to market fluctuations, putting it in a better position than other European economies. At the same time, Citi forecasts a primary surplus of 3.8% of GDP in 2026, 3.1% in 2027 and 3% in 2028. In terms of the overall fiscal balance, it estimates a surplus of 0.8% of GDP this year, followed by modest deficits of 0.1% and 0.4% over the next two years. The major stumbling block: the external balance According to Citi, the most significant structural weakness of the Greek economy remains its large current account deficit. The institution forecasts that the deficit will widen to 6.9% of GDP in 2026, primarily as a result of rising energy prices. For 2027, it estimates that the deficit will narrow to 6.2%, and for 2028 to 5.6% – levels that nevertheless continue to point to substantial external financing needs. In absolute terms, the deficit is expected to reach €17.7 billion in 2026, €16.9 billion in 2027 and €15.8 billion in 2028. Elections and the outlook for 2027 Citi points out that the 2027 election contest could bring political risk back into focus. However, its baseline scenario envisages continuity in economic policy after the elections, limiting the risk of a significant change in direction. On the employment front, it forecasts a further decline in unemployment, from 8.6% in 2026 to 8% in 2027 and 7.5% in 2028. Overall, Citi’s assessment highlights a Greek economy that is maintaining positive growth rates and improving its fiscal position, but continues to face significant challenges from its external balance, inflation and international geopolitical developments.

TOKYO - Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged 1,369.36 points, or 2.12%, to close at 63,290.11 at 3:30 p.m. on Friday, October 30, ending a three-day winning streak as a sharp selloff in semiconductor …

TOKYO - Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged 1,369.36 points, or 2.12%, to close at 63,290.11 at 3:30 p.m. on Friday, October 30, ending a three-day winning streak as a sharp selloff in semiconductor and artificial intelligence-related shares swept through the Tokyo market, while the Bank of Japan's decision to leave interest rates unchanged failed to restore investor confidence. The benchmark index suffered its first decline in four trading sessions, reversing much of the recovery seen earlier in the week. The Nikkei opened at 64,344.37, briefly climbed to 64,589.04, and subsequently fell as low as 62,711.42 before recovering part of its losses in afternoon trading. The broader Topix index also declined, finishing at 3,965.07, down 38.21 points, or 0.95%, reflecting weakness across a wide range of sectors, although some consumer, entertainment and transportation shares advanced. Selling pressure followed a downturn on Wall Street on October 29, when investors reassessed the high valuations of technology companies and questioned how quickly massive investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure would translate into earnings. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.38%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost approximately 132 points. The weakness spread to Japan's semiconductor equipment manufacturers, electronic component suppliers and other companies closely linked to the global AI investment boom. Concerns about spending by major U.S. technology companies weighed heavily on shares that had previously benefited from expectations of sustained demand for advanced chips and data center equipment. Ibiden, a manufacturer of semiconductor package substrates, fell by the daily limit of 1,500 yen, or 15.21%, to 8,359 yen, while semiconductor testing equipment maker Lasertec dropped 8.81% to 37,700 yen. Fujitsu also suffered heavy selling, with its shares declining 16.20% to 3,622 yen. The sharp movements highlighted the Japanese market's increasing sensitivity to developments in the U.S. technology sector. Semiconductor and AI-related companies have become important drivers of the Nikkei's performance, leaving the benchmark particularly vulnerable when investors reduce their exposure to high-growth technology stocks. Despite the overall market decline, several companies recorded substantial gains following corporate earnings announcements and changes in investor expectations. Konami Group surged 15.02% to 26,385 yen, while Oriental Land, operator of Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea, rose 8.45% to 3,438 yen. ANA Holdings advanced 6.31% to 3,043 yen. Trading remained active as investors adjusted their positions ahead of the three-day weekend in Japan. Turnover on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Prime Market reached approximately 8.47 trillion yen, with about 2.50 billion shares changing hands. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark short-term interest rate at 1.25% following its two-day policy meeting, voting eight to one in favor of maintaining the current level. Board member Hajime Takata opposed the decision and called for an increase to 1.5%, highlighting growing differences among policymakers over how quickly monetary tightening should proceed. The central bank raised its inflation outlook and warned that price pressures could exceed expectations, signaling that further interest rate increases remain possible. The decision reflected the BOJ's assessment that underlying inflation has moved closer to its 2% target, although uncertainties surrounding global economic growth, wages and consumer spending continue to complicate the outlook. Governor Kazuo Ueda said at a news conference that underlying inflation had not yet reached a point where the 2% target could be considered sustainably and stably achieved. He emphasized the importance of examining incoming economic indicators and underlying price trends before deciding the timing and pace of further interest rate increases. The BOJ also decided unanimously to accelerate the pace of sales of exchange-traded funds accumulated during its years of monetary easing, marking another step toward reducing its extensive financial market interventions. Currency markets remained sensitive to the monetary policy outlook, with the dollar trading around 157.61 yen at 3 p.m. in Tokyo, compared with approximately 157.71 yen in New York the previous day. The yen strengthened briefly following the BOJ's announcement before the dollar recovered some ground. A stronger yen can reduce the value of overseas earnings reported by Japanese exporters, particularly automobile manufacturers and electronics companies. Conversely, it can help ease imported inflation by lowering the yen-denominated cost of energy, food and raw materials. Fresh economic figures released on October 30 offered a mixed picture of Japan's economy. Tokyo's core consumer price index, excluding fresh food, rose 2.6% in October from a year earlier, slowing from 2.7% in September but remaining above the BOJ's inflation target. The reading matched market expectations and reinforced concerns that households continue to face significant price pressures. Employment data indicated that labor market conditions remained relatively stable. Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August, while the ratio of job openings to applicants increased to 1.19 from 1.18, indicating that employers continued to compete for workers despite slowing economic activity in some industries. Industrial production provided a more encouraging signal, rising 2.2% in September from the previous month, according to preliminary government figures. The increase followed a 2.4% decline in August and exceeded market expectations for a recovery of around 1.2% to 1.3%. Output was also 1.9% higher than a year earlier. The improvement suggested that manufacturing activity was recovering after a period of weakness, although uncertainty surrounding international trade, demand for electronics and the outlook for the global economy remained important risks for Japanese producers. Consumer spending figures were less encouraging. Retail sales increased 2.3% in September from a year earlier, below market expectations of approximately 3.3%. The result suggested that consumption continued to face pressure from rising living costs, even as employment remained firm and wage increases supported household incomes. Department store and supermarket sales rose 1.7% from a year earlier, providing evidence of continued consumer spending in some retail categories. However, higher prices rather than stronger sales volumes may have accounted for part of the increase. The combination of persistent inflation, improving industrial output and relatively stable employment has created a difficult policy environment for the BOJ. While the economy has shown sufficient resilience to support gradual monetary normalization, households remain sensitive to rising prices, and businesses face uncertainty over financing costs and overseas demand. The October 30 session also came during a major corporate earnings reporting period, with companies including Tokyo Electron, Kioxia Holdings, Murata Manufacturing, Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic Holdings, TDK, Daiichi Sankyo, East Japan Railway and Lasertec scheduled to release financial results. Investors are paying particular attention to semiconductor manufacturers and equipment suppliers, whose earnings provide an indication of whether global spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure can continue supporting Japan's technology industry. Corporate forecasts for the coming months are expected to play a major role in determining whether the recent market correction develops into a more prolonged downturn. The Nikkei ended October substantially below its closing level of 68,956.72 on October 1, reflecting a difficult month for Japanese equities despite several periods of recovery. The benchmark also remained well below its June record, underscoring the scale of the market's retreat from earlier highs. With the Tokyo market closed for the weekend and the November 3 Culture Day holiday approaching, investors will turn their attention to corporate earnings, movements in U.S. technology shares and indications of when the BOJ could next increase interest rates. For Japan's economy, the central question remains whether improving industrial activity and steady employment can sustain growth while borrowing costs rise and consumers continue to face elevated prices. The sharp decline in stocks on October 30 demonstrated how closely Japan's financial markets remain tied to global technology investment, international monetary policy and expectations for the country's economic recovery.

The Federal Reserve asked for more information before changing interest rates. Eighteen and a half hours later, the economy supplied it: growth was strong, inflation remained elevated, and households were spending more without buying …

The Federal Reserve asked for more information before changing interest rates. Eighteen and a half hours later, the economy supplied it: growth was strong, inflation remained elevated, and households were spending more without buying much more. But before inv… The Federal Reserve asked for more information before changing interest rates. Eighteen and a half hours later, the economy supplied it: growth was strong, inflation remained elevated, and households…

Fed's Barkin says US central bank's direction 'straightforward,' the question is pace, SiriusXM reports By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said on Friday that with high …

Fed's Barkin says US central bank's direction 'straightforward,' the question is pace, SiriusXM reports By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said on Friday that with high inflation and the economy so… Fed's Barkin says US central bank's direction 'straightforward,' the question is pace, SiriusXM reportsBy Howard SchneiderWASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin …

The Canadian dollar is heading for its largest monthly gain since April, supported by elevated oil prices and interest rates. Read more. The Canadian dollar is heading for its largest monthly gain since April, …

The Canadian dollar is heading for its largest monthly gain since April, supported by elevated oil prices and interest rates. Read more. The Canadian dollar is heading for its largest monthly gain since April, supported by elevated oil prices and the Bank of Canadas shift toward tighter monetary policy. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR S…

United States Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin spoke at SiriusXM's Business Briefing on Friday, explaining that with high inflation, unemployment "relatively low," and demand "sol... United States Federal Reserve Bank of …

United States Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin spoke at SiriusXM's Business Briefing on Friday, explaining that with high inflation, unemployment "relatively low," and demand "sol... United States Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin spoke at SiriusXM's Business Briefing on Friday, explaining that with high inflation, unemployment "relatively low," and demand "so…